Comment du Jour

Ukraine Fault-line with Russia still Rumbles

The artillery rumbles like a rolling late Spring storm.  Small arms fire reaches a staccato, only to fall silent just as quickly.  And hapless civilians on both sides of an arbitrary divide endure and suffer as the forgotten slow burner conflict in eastern Ukraine continues far from the headlines but embedded in the acute anxiety of European and U.S. policymakers.

The French Senate has called for a lifting of economic sanctions on Russia which were slapped on Moscow after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea two years ago.  Now Military planners in NATO, are running a once unthinkable scenario of major multinational maneuvers aimed at very visibly reinforcing the vulnerable security of Poland and the Baltic states from Vladimir Putin’s political probing.  Meantime the USA remains embroiled in a divisive presidential campaign where foreign policy remains more of a laugh line than a serious focus.

But along the cultural fault-lines which divide Ukraine’s eastern regions bordering Russia, the gritty industrial areas where language, customs and religion are profoundly linked to Moscow’s eastern embrace.  The majority of Ukraine looks westwards towards Europe.

But it is no wonder that in a hyper-nationalist post Soviet polity, that President Putin would press to reintegrate the culturally Russian regions of Ukraine’s east, as well as Crimea.  Moscow’s actions have produced justified fears in the Baltic states that they too may face an inevitable threat to their sovereignty more than 20 years since they broke free from the former Soviet Union.  

There’s genuine reason for concern.  According to  the UN’s  High Commissioner for Human Rights survey, “From mid-April 2014 to 15 May 2016, OHCHR recorded 30,903 casualties in the conflict area in eastern Ukraine, among Ukrainian armed forces, civilians and members of the armed groups.  This includes 9,371 people killed and 21,532 injured.”  

The report adds,  “After two years, the situation in the east of Ukraine remains volatile and

may develop into a ‘frozen conflict’, creating a protracted environment of insecurity and instability; escalate, with dire consequences for civilians living in the conflict- affected area; or move towards sustainable peace through the meaningful implementation of the Minsk Package of Measures. The stakes are high.”  

Yet the same events triggered a slow-burning conflict in which Russia has used its own troops as well as supported and armed unwieldy separatist militias to dismember Ukraine’s territory.  

While openly criticizing both the Ukraine government and the Moscow backed separatist enclaves, the survey clearly states, “In the territories controlled by the armed groups, freedom of expression, including the ability to openly express dissenting views, remained severely restricted.”  Moreover the report adds that in Russian-annexed Crimea,  “residents have witnessed a sharp deterioration of the human rights situation, including the imposition of a new legal framework restrictive of civil liberties, abductions and disappearances, the shutting down of opposition media outlets and the silencing of dissenting voices through the initiation of repressive measures, including abusive criminal proceedings, targeting mainly pro- Ukrainian activists and Crimean Tatar institutions.”

As Vladimir Putin approaches parliamentary elections in the Summer, one wonders if he will make the hyper-nationalist gamble to turn up the heat in eastern Ukraine?  Although relatively weak petroleum prices have put a damper on  Russia’s political maneuverability,  an uptick in the oil price combined with European indifference and  American detachment, could allow for Moscow’s mischief if not wider malevolent moves.      

Comment du Jour

Global Growth Lackluster; Governments Oft Clueless

“Economic activity in the world economy remains lackluster, with little prospect for a turnaround in 2016,” cites the gloomy prognosis by the World Economic Situation and Prospects Update for 2016.  The UN survey cautions that weak global growth “continues to linger,”  posing a serious challenge for governments and economies.

World gross domestic product is only expected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2016.  The tepid expansion reflects what the survey calls  “low investment, low commodity prices and financial market turbulence.”  It adds “bleak prospects have been compounded by severe weather related shocks, political challenge and large capital outflows in many developing regions.”

Hardly a sunny forecast, as the world economy is facing severe drought-related agricultural losses from the cyclical El-Nino weather effect as well as major setbacks in commodity prices.

But besides bad weather we see that in the developed economies “the momentum of growth has slowed significantly.”  In the United States GDP growth is expected to reach only 2.2 percent in 2016  but remains fragile.  The survey states, “The revival of business investment in the United States lost momentum last year culminating in a sharp drop in the final quarter of 2015.”

USA job creation numbers remain lackluster too.

Japan still experiences tepid economic conditions with GDP growth a mere 0.5 percent. Despite its lackluster performance last year, Japan’s economy grew impressively at 1.7 percent in the first quarter of this year.  The report warns that should the government increase a consumption tax from 8 to 10 percent,  “Japan could fall back again into recession in 2017.

European Union economies are expected to expand by 1.9 percent this year and 2 percent next year, but here again growth varies widely among the 28 member states with Germany’s economy still the EU locomotive at 1.5 percent growth.

East Asia again gets among the best marks with regional growth pegged at 5.5 percent this year. Mainland China’s economic deceleration has taken its toll;  Beijing’s once dizzying growth rates have tempered to 7.3 in 2014 and 6.4 percent expected this year.   Not only has China’s economy precipitously slowed but the knock on effect has  been felt especially among commodity exporters in Africa and Latin America.

Yet, Mainland China’s trade with the U.S. continues to surge with a $366 billion trade deficit favoring Beijing last year alone!

 Russia continues to stagnate due to the fall in petroleum prices as well as Western economic sanctions slapped on  Moscow over Ukraine.  Russia’s growth in 2015 recorded a  minus 3.7 while this year a minus 1.9 is expected.  Ukraine’s economy is equally projected to suffer this year.

The enthusiasm over what many economists call the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) seems to have dampened as the once vaunted group has weathered notable economic setbacks which have knocked down many of the BRICS.

The report stresses that persistent weakness in demand in developed economies remains a drag on global growth.  Equally the massive debt levels accumulated by government spending in the USA and much of Europe  has served as an deadweight to hinder a robust economic recovery.

The U.S. must revive its economy through entrepreneurism, not more government spending.

Comment du Jour

Digital Estonia Sets High Tech Bar for Development 

When I first visited Estonia over twenty years ago, the Baltic country had recently regained its independence from the Soviet Union.  Tallinn, the capital and an old Hanseatic trading city, offered an intriguing mix of  medieval architecture and shoddy Soviet style construction.  Situated on the Gulf of Finland, Estonia, though occupied by Moscow, was deceptively close to the free Nordic countries.  

Since regaining its freedom in 1991, Estonia has pursued a fast track to democratic and now digital development.  The building blocks involved a revival of the country’s multi-party traditions and an embrace of free markets.  For example, the Washington based think tank  Heritage Foundation places Estonia’s economic freedom as #9 globally, just behind Ireland, and ahead of the USA and United Kingdom.

Equally Estonia boasts the freest press/media of any of the former Soviet states.  

But while my memories of Estonia are rooted in the country’s rich but turbulent history, I was jolted into the contemporary era by presentations on the country’s leading edge role in the digital age and how this tiny land is harnessing information technology for improved E governance.

Estonia’s dynamic Prime Minister Taavi Roivas (36) visited the UN to present his nation’s success story to the Economic and Social Council.  He underscored Estonia’s role as an example of  innovation, digital technology and how public-private partnerships could boost development. Minister Roivas explained how the economy which was in transition just sixteen years ago, “was now one of the most digitally advanced countries.”   

Prime Minister Roivas asserted that building an advanced digital government and being the birthplace of Skype had “given Estonia  an active start-up scene.”  He stressed that digitation had made both the public and private sectors efficient.  There’s a strong commitment to economic freedom. 

Later during a presentation to the International Peace Institute,  Roivas 

said that the digital government initiatives “provide citizens with a precious resource: time.”  Indeed with less bureaucracy and smart and innovative initiatives, the government has streamlined many procedures such as online voting and paying taxes.  

“Starting a new company in Estonia is done online too and takes about twenty minutes; it’s all digital and no paperwork,” Roivas advised, adding and then “you have a firm up and running with total European Union access.” Top personal and corporate taxes have been reduced to 20 percent.

As the Prime Minister added, “This is not just tech savvy, and not just cool, but transparent.”      A digital policy with ID cards carrying medical and personal information have streamlined services according to officials.  

Estonia is one of the world’s least corrupt countries according to Transparency International.  The digital presence as not just efficient but transparent.  As the Prime Minister jokes, “you can’t bribe a computer.”  

Yet vulnerability to cyber warfare, especially from active networks in neighboring Russia, pose a threat as in 2007 when Estonia was hit by a full scale cyber attack.  Roivas asserts the importance of cyber defense and adds a digital government is not an end in itself. “In fact the Citizens are Big Brother over the Government.”  

Estonia is a member of the Digital Five, a select group of five countries including Israel, New Zealand, South Korea, and the United Kingdom; places with high use of  E government.

Illegally annexed by the Soviets in 1940, and ruled as a  “Socialist Republic” until 1991, Estonia still hosts a large Russian ethnic population; in the capital Tallinn the population is 38 percent Russian. 

Prime Minister Roivas concedes that while there has been “a worrying pattern” of Russia violating sovereignty of Georgia and Ukraine, Estonia’s NATO membership is a valuable safeguard to its sovereignty.  Equally Estonia is one of a handful of NATO states which spends 2 percent of GDP on defense the others being the USA, UK, Greece and Poland.  

Yet this little Baltic nation, about the size of New Hampshire and Vermont combined, has only 1.3 million people and is geographically on westernmost shoulder of Russia. Its big neighbor gives it the most concern and that is exactly why Estonia is a member of NATO and the EU.   

“National security is fundamental for any state,” and indirectly referencing Russia he added, “We should not forget countries in Europe changing state borders by force.” 

Roivas asserted warily, “Crises do not come and go, but come and stay.”  

Comment du Jour

Happy Europe Day!


New York's iconic Empire State building is lit up in the Blue and Gold
colors of the 28 member European Union to celebrate Europe Day on 10 May.

Comment du Jour

Governments Paranoid Over Free Media: Global Survey Reports

Governments throughout the world seem increasingly nervous if not paranoid over a free press and media, according to a searingly poignant survey by Reporters Without Borders (RSF).  The annual survey of the global media in 180 countries, the French-based monitor report underscores a gradual deterioration in freedoms and the rights of journalists to freely pursue and present reports. 

“It is unfortunately clear that many of the world’s leaders are developing a form of paranoia about legitimate journalism,” states Christophe Deloire, RSF’s Secretary General.  He adds, “The climate of fear results in a growing aversion to debate and pluralism, a clampdown on the media by ever more authoritarian and oppressive governments.”

All this points to what the watchdog group calls a “deep and disturbing decline in media freedoms.” 

First let’s analyze the survey, compiled by a rigorous methodology and analysis.  Of the top ten countries with the freest media include Finland, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark and New Zealand.  Not surprising.  The second five include Costa Rica, Switzerland,  Sweden, Ireland and Jamaica.   

Again impressive, but where’s the USA?   

Let’s look at the next ten countries.  There’s Austria, Slovakia, Belgium, Germany and Canada among them. There’s good news here: Estonia has the best ratings of any country in the post-Soviet Union while Slovakia has the best numbers of any country in former Eastern Europe. 

Yet again, where’s the USA?

The United States is ranked 41st  in press freedoms, that’s behind South Africa and Slovenia and just ahead of Burkina Faso and Botswana.  Despite America’s long cherished First Amendment which constitutionally provides for extensive media rights, there’s been a steady erosion of  journalistic freedoms in recent years.  In 2015 the USA ranked 49th.  But why?

The reasons are manifest in the Administration’s stringent use of security legislation.  According to the report, “The main cause for concern for RSF continues to be the current administration’s obsessive control of information, which manifests itself through the war on whistleblowers and journalists’ sources, as well as the lack of government transparency, which reporters have continually criticized. ”  

The RSF survey adds poignantly,  “The Obama administration has prosecuted more whistleblowers under the Espionage Act than all previous administrations combined.”

But it’ s not just the U.S. slipping in press freedoms.  Japan which has proudly sustained a free press in the postwar era, has now slipped eleven places to #72,  just behind South Korea.  Japan’s press restrictions concerning “state secrets” remain onerous.  

The Republic of China on Taiwan still maintains the highest free press standing  in East Asia: Taiwan comes in at #51, compared with Hong Kong at #69 and the Philippines at #138.  Mainland China’s media freedoms are near the end of the list scoring #176, just behind Vietnam and one step ahead of Syria.   

As is now almost a tradition, North Korea and Eritrea are at the bottom of the list rounding out the most repressive states for media freedoms.  

Surprised?

Comment du Jour

Sideways Swimming Pool?

                                                             Van Goghs Ear 

Amid the Art Deco architectural splendor of New York's Rockefeller Center complex, there's a new attraction politely described as public art.  Van Gogh's Ear is a 30 foot sideways swimming
pool, stood upright, on the plaza which is best known for the iconic seasonal Christmas Tree.

 Elmgreen and Dragset, a Danish/Norwegian artistic duo,  says their design is meant to visually attract attention and provoke thought.   

 It certainly does.  

Comment du Jour

NY Antiquarian Book Fair

April 7-10

The New York Antiquarian Book Fair is back in New York!!  The 56th Annual
Fair, located at the venerable red brick Park Avenue Armory,  has become a true Rite of Spring for those looking for rare and important books as well as
a fascinating array of literature, autographs, Americana and amazing illuminated manuscripts.

The Fair, is noted for its First Editions of rare volumes from the 16th century right until the mid-20th century Ian Fleming James Bond series.


Over 200 American and largely European dealers are again participating in the Fair with strong contingents from Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland.  New participants from Australia included the Asia Bookroom.

Rare books abound as do interesting letters and pieces of history.

The Raab Collection of Ardmore, Pennsylvania offered a fascinating piece of American history.

Here's a letter written by Thomas Jefferson, reacting to the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the resumption of Transatlantic Commerce.  Writing from Monticello, in 1815, Jefferson states, "With the return of peace, I return to my old correspondents.  I am out of wine, and it will be some months before I can receive for what I have written for to Europe.  I must request you to fill up the chasm by sending me a quarter cask of either dry Sherry or Dry Lisbon (Port) which you have to be recommended.  Let it be in a double cask and sent to Richmond."  

The legendary Travels of Mendes Pinto: Adventurer, Missionary, Pirate from the Red Sea to the South China Sea & Japan was being offered by New York dealer Martayan Lan.  Printed in Lisbon in 1614, the fabled Peregrinations, and a classic in Portuguese literature, became as well known as  Dom Quixote, and rivaled Marco Polo's Travels for its extraordinary descriptions of the Far East.

London rare book dealer Leo Cadogan brought some gems including the above account dealing with military matters relating to the War of Spanish Succession. The frontispiece engraving is  of King Philip V.  The book dating from 1707 opens a window into a forgotten but crucial era in European history.

Business seemed brisk and dealers were busy.
The Park Avenue Armory presents a perfect and established venue for the Fair and participants hope it shall continue to do so into the future.