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Merry Christmas!!!

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Hungarian Revolution Remembered

During October/November 1956, Hungarians revolted against the Soviet occupation. For a few brief weeks it appered that the Central European country would be free. Then on 4 November the communists counterattacked and put down this revolt in a bloodbath. Remember and Reflect upon those free days in Budapest which signalled a shock to the Soviet Empire. The Hungarian flag pictured here represents the banner after freedom fighters tore out the communist symbol in the center. It recalls the spirit of 1956 now 65 years ago!

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UN's dreary General Debate Presidents, Prime Ministers and Kings came to New York for the 76th UN General Assembly debate. The annual rite of Autumn was sadly shadowed by the pandemic and a growing lack of interest in the proceedings, many of which were, you guessed it, Online. It's just not the same as we all know by now, but some of the UN's major speakers were via Webex, and not in person. Except for some rheotirical flareups between Pakistan and India the speakers droned on. Few delegates seemed to care. This is what a pandemic UN debate session looks like, now for the second year in a row.

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French Summer: Fear and Frustration

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Global Tourism Needs a Shot in the Arm

It’s Summertime and the living is easy, as the old song goes.  And vacations both domestic and international should be surging despite dark pandemic clouds still shrouding parts of the world.
But last year’s collapse in international tourism, seeing a decline by 74 percent in 2020, has still
not rebounded.  According to a new UN report, so far 2021 has actually “been worse for most
destinations with an average global decline of 88 percent compared to pre-pandemic levels.” 

Tragically, the COVID-19 pandemic still runs rife over large parts of the world; more than four
million people have since died.  And it’s not over.  UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated somberly, “Vaccines offer a ray of hope, but most of the world is still in the shadows.  The virus is outpacing vaccine distribution.  This pandemic is clearly far from over; more than half its     victims died this year. ” 

A new report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on “COVID 19 and Tourism” warns, “Vaccines are a critical part of the solution, albeit with considerable uncertainty, even once access and distribution problems are overcome.”
 
Clearly vaccinations have slowed the spread especially in the United States, Israel, and Western Europe.  Yet shortages, haphazard distribution, and vaccine reluctance has plagued countries such as Brazil, India, and South Africa.  

Moreover travel restrictions, constantly changing and confusing even in Europe, have dampened interests in many destinations.  

For example, the World Tourism Organization (WTO) reports that key international destinations such as Thailand have seen a 83 percent visitor drop, Indonesia 74 percent, Turkey 73 percent and Jamaica 67 percent. China, the source of the Coronavirus has experienced an 88 percent drop.  Needless to say tourism forms a vital economic engine which is now largely sputtering.
The WTO reports that tourism experts don’t see “a return to pre-COVID arrival levels until 2023 or later.”  In fact, nearly half of those consulted only see a return to 2019 levels in 2024!  The group adds, that while “Domestic travel has increased, but this does little to help developing countries that are dependent on international travel.”

Indeed the group lists a number of scenarios for tourism growth; the more “optimistic” scenario reflects a 63 percent reduction in travel!  Based on this model, overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decline for example in Turkey would be 6.3 percent, Ireland 4 percent, France 2.3 percent, and the USA 1.5 percent.  

So what to do?

The UN Trade and Development and WTO report asserts, “So far, the vaccine rollout has varied greatly between countries, from almost complete to hardly started.  Rolling out the vaccine  globally as soon as possible is an economic priority.”   The report adds,  “Vaccinating 40 per cent of the global population by year’s end and 60 per cent by mid-2022 is an aspirational goal, but difficult to achieve and could cost $50 billion, according to International Monetary Fund.”  

Yet it appears that even well vaccinated countries such as the USA and United Kingdom may be adversely affected by new COVID strains such as the Delta variant.  This reality raises the specter of renewed restrictions to movement and international travel. 
 
Given the warmer weather and lifting of most local COVID restrictions, New York City 
is returning to its groove as a vibrant pace setting center.  Yet surprisingly despite open  restaurants and the return of insufferable traffic, large parts of the Big Apple seem strangely free of foreign tourists.  Many large hotels are still closed and the return of rampant street crime has dampened any true return to normality.  

At the start of the  Tokyo Olympics, Japan faces further COVID restrictions adding a spectator ban on Olympic sporting venues. 

While the U.S. government is again pushing for vaccine mandates and Americans have easy  access to the jabs, Dr. Matt McCarthy, staff physician at New York-Presbyterian Hospital,  stresses that vaccine acceptance among the population would increase with overdue FDA approval of the shots which would underscore their safety. “There’s no explanation for the holdup.”

In the meantime Vaccine Passports are planned as the world returns to “normal.” 

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European Public’s “Deep Disillusionment” Over EU, U.S. and COVID

European majorities seem troubled and deeply disillusioned over the ongoing COVID pandemic, which has turned into a crisis of confidence in the European Union, and equally stirred lingering doubts about the United States as a partner and ally.  

This gloomy assessment is reflected in a current poll which “finds that confidence in the EU has collapsed during the Covid-19 pandemic”, and that in countries such as Germany, France, Spain and Italy, a majority of citizens now see the European project as “broken.”  

As dangerously, the report finds that “confidence in the United States is still low.”  

Equally many Europeans view Turkey as a greater “rival” or “adversary” than the People’s Republic of China or Russia. 

The polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) commissioned through groups such as Alpha and You Gov, surveyed citizens in 12 EU member states, shows citizens’ deep disillusionment with their national political systems.

Europe’s deep political funk stems largely from the European Union’s haphazard vaccine        response to the Covid-19 pandemic.  The majority of respondents in France (62%), Germany, (55%), and Italy (57%) view the European project as “broken.”  

The report adds, “Despite this crisis of public confidence, there is still a widespread belief that

greater European Union cooperation is needed.” 

In France for example where citizens go to the polls in 2022 for Presidential elections, two thirds of those surveyed (66%) hold the view that their national political system is broken.  That feeling translates to (80%) in Italy and (80%) in Spain.  

The poll reveals very troubling trends in how the United States is viewed.  Though the Biden Administration has redoubled efforts to rhetorically smooth Transatlantic ties, only one in five respondents view the U.S. as an “ally” that shares Europe’s “values and interests.”  Many (44%) see the U.S. as a “necessary partner”  they must “strategically cooperate with on the international stage.”  

Higher numbers in Poland, Denmark and Hungary view the USA as an ally that shares their “values and interests.”  

For example, 80% of Poles view the United States as an “ally” or “necessary partner.”  This 

is equally true among the Danes,  Dutch, Hungarians and Portuguese.  But the numbers shift to 58% support in Germany and 61% among the French.   

Many Europeans see a world of strategic partners rather than alliances; a sad observation given the extraordinary role the United States played through the Marshall Plan and the subsequent NATO Alliance forged in the post-war era.  

The survey underscores an interesting fact; large numbers of Europeans view Turkey, given its geographical proximity,  rather than China as their chief adversary.  A majority in France (53%) and Germany, (52%) saw Turkey as an EU “rival or adversary”.  Equally over 40% of those in Germany, Denmark, Austria and France viewed China as a “rival or adversary.”  

Yet here’s an ironic twist; Russia is not viewed as a “rival” or “adversary” but instead as a

“necessary parter” by many Europeans!  Remarkably, only 17% of respondents to ECFR’s poll see Russia as an adversary; this figure drops down to 5-7%  among Bulgarians and Italians. 

The report warns, “There’s been a major collapse in Germans trust in the European Union”. 

Naturally such an undertow from the ongoing pandemic may play a unpredictable role as     Germany approaches pivotal national elections in late September. 

Viewing the bigger picture, there’s no doubt that the American image has taken serious  political hits in Europe especially since the Iraq War in 2003.   European media outlets, very often reflecting the U.S. mainstream media animus, had glibly demonized the George W. Bush and especially Donald Trump Administrations.  This reality still negatively impacts on transatlantic relations.   It needs to be resolved. 

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                   May in Manhattan!!!