Sunday, February 26, 2012

Comment du Jour


Syria Regime Slammed by UN Assembly

Russia Stands by its Client

UNITED NATIONS—In a political tsunami of condemnation, the General Assembly slammed Syria’s rulers for “widespread and systematic” human rights violations and demanded the Damascus regime cease the ongoing violence which has caused more than 6,000 lives during the past year of civil strife.

Given the setting and the players amongst the full 193 member Assembly, the condemnation of the Assad Family dictatorship is pretty remarkable, but rests with what as seen as increasingly helplessness to halt the conflict which has wracked Syria and increasingly threatens to destabilize the region especially Lebanon and Iraq.

The resolution, supporting Arab League efforts condemning “widespread and systematic violations of human rights and fundamental freedoms by the Syrian authorities,” such as the use of force against civilians, arbitrary executions and torture.

The vote was significant given that 137 countries, including most of the Arab and Islamic world condemned what is often referred to as a “brother Arab state.” Importantly the USA, the Europeans, India and most of East Asia equally supported the non-binding resolution.

Of the 12 states opposing the text were a dwindling band of predicable pedigree; Russia, Mainland China, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Significantly the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria’s primary regional ally, backed the Assad Alewite minority rulers. Others opposing the resolution included Belarus, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and naturally Syria itself.

Both Moscow and Beijing recently vetoed a UN Security Council resolution which would have brought serious consequences to the Damascus rulers. Recall that historically Syria was a Soviet client state and still retains close security ties to Russia.

Speaking before the vote Ambassador Thomas Mayr-Harting of the European Union stated poignantly, “The regime continues its ruthless and outrageous campaign of repression against the Syrian people and the massive, gross and systematic violations of human rights.”

Importantly the Geneva-based Human Rights Commissioner stressed, “the nature and scale of abuses committed by the Syrian forces indicate that crimes against humanity are likely to have been committed since March 2011,” words which indicate a probability that the Damascus rulers will be brought before international criminal authorities should they surrender or be toppled.

For example, the regime’s heavy artillery is pounding away at dissidents and civilian neighborhoods in the city of Homs, clearly is a war crime.

Syria’s ethnic and religious fault lines reflect the post-colonial architecture of much of the Levant following French rule. Interestingly the Allewite Muslim minority (a Shiite group with links to Iran) has ruled over the Sunni majority. Syria’s security forces and secret police are rooted in the shadowy Allewite power structure.

Still despite longtime political repression by the Damascus rulers, the Assad family has maintained a secular state where Christians, Druze and Kurds have not faced the discrimination oft common in many Middle Eastern countries. Sadly some of the impoverished Sunnis have turned to violence and sectors of the fragmented opposition probably contain Al Qaida cadre as was the case in Libya last year.

The ongoing political conflict could in turn harden the country’s ethnic and religious fault lines, similar to neighboring Lebanon. Syria’s crisis begs resolution from the Arab League, not the USA nor NATO. Realistically neighboring Turkey’s powerful Sunni establishment will weigh into the imbroglio, France the former colonial power should focus on humanitarian actions, and the UN must press for an overdue solution to decompress and democratize the percolating situation..

As the crisis continues, Washington is wise to keep political and economic pressures on the Damascus regime, but should realistically refrain from any impulse to engage in military action or in trying to sort out Syria’s ethnic bouillabaisse which makes Iraq look simple.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Comment du Jour


UN to Shine in South Atlantic Falklands Crisis?


Rhetorical gales from Argentina are again battering the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic. And while the presumably noble sentiments of Argentine sovereignty blows over the windswept islands, just under the adjacent waters may sit massive petroleum deposits which would change the geopolitical calculations both for Britain and Argentina.

Now in what appears to have strange parallels with the 1982 Falklands conflict, Argentina and Britain are floating claims and counterclaims over the fate and future of 3,000 islanders who have been British since 1765 and resolutely wish to remain so. The citizens of this British overseas territory are self-governing and have their own constitution.

Just 300 miles off the Argentine coast, the Falkland islands are best known for their sheep and penguins. But now there may be oil.

Argentina invaded the undefended atoll in 1982, claimed sovereignty as the Malvinas, but after a few months, was sent reeling back when a British Naval task force sailed from 8,000 miles away to dislodge the invaders. This was conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s “finest hour” on the foreign policy front. In Buenos Aires, the ensuing debacle toppled the Argentine dictatorship.

Today Argentina is a democracy but the government has allowed tub-thumping nationalism to take stage and claim that Britain has militarized the islands. Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Marcos Timerman calls the situation a “last vestige of colonial empire” where “Britannia rules” only applies in the South Atlantic.

Flanked at the UN by the ambassadors of Cuba, Nicaragua and Brazil, Foreign Minister Timerman presented a show and tell outlining the British military presence with a new Dauntles destroyer, Typhoon jets, and Taurus missiles not to mention the Royal family’s own Prince William who is on active military service in the archipelago. The Argentines allege that the UK military forces shadow Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and southern Brazil, thus representing “unjustified defense of self-determination as an excuse for militarizing the South Atlantic.”

Britain’s UN delegate Mark Lyall called claims of a military buildup as “manifestly absurd.”

Echoes of 1982. I recall covering the diplomatic wrangling of the Falklands conflict; Argentina’s Foreign Minister Costa Mendez facing off in the Security Council with Britain’s Sir Anthony Parsons who amazingly finessed a draft resolution through the Security Council demanding an end to hostilities and calling for an immediate Argentine withdrawal.

In the first crisis, Argentina grossly underestimated the Thatcher government’s iron tenacity to retain British sovereignty over the islands through dispatching the naval Task Force to the South Atlantic. The conflict lasted from early April until the British recaptured the once-forgotten islands in June.

Fast-forward thirty years! Today the Falkland/Malvinas issue has again returned to the halls of the UN. The leftist Argentine government is mired in a deep economic crisis. President Christina Fernandez de Kirchner, playing on the traditional Peronist populism and high-octane nationalism, has decided to turn up the political heat on a long-simmering Anglo/ Argentine dispute. She’s backed by Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, Cuba and many Latin American states.

In a bizarre twist, left-wing American actor Sean Penn has backed Argentina’s bid and accused the British of “ridiculous colonialism.”

Sober diplomacy is needed now as much as ever, as we approach the thirtieth anniversary” of the Falklands/Malvinas conflict.

The crisis is brewing not boiling. But could events spiral into déjà vu 1982?

Monday, February 13, 2012

Comment du Jour


HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY!!
14 February

Sunday, February 5, 2012

Comment du Jour

Russians Say NYET to Syria Resolution but the Transatlantic Alliance shines in Crisis

United Nations—An Arab League sponsored Security Council action to stop the bloodshed in Syria saw impressive Western support. Both Britain and France along with the USA supported a draft resolution at the UN to stop the violence an open the way for a political settlement to the crisis which has taken more than 6,000 lives.

But a rare double veto by Russia and Mainland China defeated the draft, and gave the Arab/Western effort a double whammy in effect.

Still the draft resolution was backed by Britain, France and the USA as well as Germany and Portugal. Impressively major Arab kingdoms such as Saudi Arabia, Morocco, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman supported the diplomatic effort. This was an impressive array to say the least.

France’s Foreign Minister Alain Juppe described the double veto as a “moral stain” on the reputation of the UN. He is right.

The hardening of attitudes on all sides both in the international community and inside Syria, brings the former Levantine colony of France one step closer to civil war.