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Merry Christmas!!!

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Hungarian Revolution Remembered

During October/November 1956, Hungarians revolted against the Soviet occupation. For a few brief weeks it appered that the Central European country would be free. Then on 4 November the communists counterattacked and put down this revolt in a bloodbath. Remember and Reflect upon those free days in Budapest which signalled a shock to the Soviet Empire. The Hungarian flag pictured here represents the banner after freedom fighters tore out the communist symbol in the center. It recalls the spirit of 1956 now 65 years ago!

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UN's dreary General Debate Presidents, Prime Ministers and Kings came to New York for the 76th UN General Assembly debate. The annual rite of Autumn was sadly shadowed by the pandemic and a growing lack of interest in the proceedings, many of which were, you guessed it, Online. It's just not the same as we all know by now, but some of the UN's major speakers were via Webex, and not in person. Except for some rheotirical flareups between Pakistan and India the speakers droned on. Few delegates seemed to care. This is what a pandemic UN debate session looks like, now for the second year in a row.

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French Summer: Fear and Frustration

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Global Tourism Needs a Shot in the Arm

It’s Summertime and the living is easy, as the old song goes.  And vacations both domestic and international should be surging despite dark pandemic clouds still shrouding parts of the world.
But last year’s collapse in international tourism, seeing a decline by 74 percent in 2020, has still
not rebounded.  According to a new UN report, so far 2021 has actually “been worse for most
destinations with an average global decline of 88 percent compared to pre-pandemic levels.” 

Tragically, the COVID-19 pandemic still runs rife over large parts of the world; more than four
million people have since died.  And it’s not over.  UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated somberly, “Vaccines offer a ray of hope, but most of the world is still in the shadows.  The virus is outpacing vaccine distribution.  This pandemic is clearly far from over; more than half its     victims died this year. ” 

A new report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on “COVID 19 and Tourism” warns, “Vaccines are a critical part of the solution, albeit with considerable uncertainty, even once access and distribution problems are overcome.”
 
Clearly vaccinations have slowed the spread especially in the United States, Israel, and Western Europe.  Yet shortages, haphazard distribution, and vaccine reluctance has plagued countries such as Brazil, India, and South Africa.  

Moreover travel restrictions, constantly changing and confusing even in Europe, have dampened interests in many destinations.  

For example, the World Tourism Organization (WTO) reports that key international destinations such as Thailand have seen a 83 percent visitor drop, Indonesia 74 percent, Turkey 73 percent and Jamaica 67 percent. China, the source of the Coronavirus has experienced an 88 percent drop.  Needless to say tourism forms a vital economic engine which is now largely sputtering.
The WTO reports that tourism experts don’t see “a return to pre-COVID arrival levels until 2023 or later.”  In fact, nearly half of those consulted only see a return to 2019 levels in 2024!  The group adds, that while “Domestic travel has increased, but this does little to help developing countries that are dependent on international travel.”

Indeed the group lists a number of scenarios for tourism growth; the more “optimistic” scenario reflects a 63 percent reduction in travel!  Based on this model, overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decline for example in Turkey would be 6.3 percent, Ireland 4 percent, France 2.3 percent, and the USA 1.5 percent.  

So what to do?

The UN Trade and Development and WTO report asserts, “So far, the vaccine rollout has varied greatly between countries, from almost complete to hardly started.  Rolling out the vaccine  globally as soon as possible is an economic priority.”   The report adds,  “Vaccinating 40 per cent of the global population by year’s end and 60 per cent by mid-2022 is an aspirational goal, but difficult to achieve and could cost $50 billion, according to International Monetary Fund.”  

Yet it appears that even well vaccinated countries such as the USA and United Kingdom may be adversely affected by new COVID strains such as the Delta variant.  This reality raises the specter of renewed restrictions to movement and international travel. 
 
Given the warmer weather and lifting of most local COVID restrictions, New York City 
is returning to its groove as a vibrant pace setting center.  Yet surprisingly despite open  restaurants and the return of insufferable traffic, large parts of the Big Apple seem strangely free of foreign tourists.  Many large hotels are still closed and the return of rampant street crime has dampened any true return to normality.  

At the start of the  Tokyo Olympics, Japan faces further COVID restrictions adding a spectator ban on Olympic sporting venues. 

While the U.S. government is again pushing for vaccine mandates and Americans have easy  access to the jabs, Dr. Matt McCarthy, staff physician at New York-Presbyterian Hospital,  stresses that vaccine acceptance among the population would increase with overdue FDA approval of the shots which would underscore their safety. “There’s no explanation for the holdup.”

In the meantime Vaccine Passports are planned as the world returns to “normal.” 

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European Public’s “Deep Disillusionment” Over EU, U.S. and COVID

European majorities seem troubled and deeply disillusioned over the ongoing COVID pandemic, which has turned into a crisis of confidence in the European Union, and equally stirred lingering doubts about the United States as a partner and ally.  

This gloomy assessment is reflected in a current poll which “finds that confidence in the EU has collapsed during the Covid-19 pandemic”, and that in countries such as Germany, France, Spain and Italy, a majority of citizens now see the European project as “broken.”  

As dangerously, the report finds that “confidence in the United States is still low.”  

Equally many Europeans view Turkey as a greater “rival” or “adversary” than the People’s Republic of China or Russia. 

The polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) commissioned through groups such as Alpha and You Gov, surveyed citizens in 12 EU member states, shows citizens’ deep disillusionment with their national political systems.

Europe’s deep political funk stems largely from the European Union’s haphazard vaccine        response to the Covid-19 pandemic.  The majority of respondents in France (62%), Germany, (55%), and Italy (57%) view the European project as “broken.”  

The report adds, “Despite this crisis of public confidence, there is still a widespread belief that

greater European Union cooperation is needed.” 

In France for example where citizens go to the polls in 2022 for Presidential elections, two thirds of those surveyed (66%) hold the view that their national political system is broken.  That feeling translates to (80%) in Italy and (80%) in Spain.  

The poll reveals very troubling trends in how the United States is viewed.  Though the Biden Administration has redoubled efforts to rhetorically smooth Transatlantic ties, only one in five respondents view the U.S. as an “ally” that shares Europe’s “values and interests.”  Many (44%) see the U.S. as a “necessary partner”  they must “strategically cooperate with on the international stage.”  

Higher numbers in Poland, Denmark and Hungary view the USA as an ally that shares their “values and interests.”  

For example, 80% of Poles view the United States as an “ally” or “necessary partner.”  This 

is equally true among the Danes,  Dutch, Hungarians and Portuguese.  But the numbers shift to 58% support in Germany and 61% among the French.   

Many Europeans see a world of strategic partners rather than alliances; a sad observation given the extraordinary role the United States played through the Marshall Plan and the subsequent NATO Alliance forged in the post-war era.  

The survey underscores an interesting fact; large numbers of Europeans view Turkey, given its geographical proximity,  rather than China as their chief adversary.  A majority in France (53%) and Germany, (52%) saw Turkey as an EU “rival or adversary”.  Equally over 40% of those in Germany, Denmark, Austria and France viewed China as a “rival or adversary.”  

Yet here’s an ironic twist; Russia is not viewed as a “rival” or “adversary” but instead as a

“necessary parter” by many Europeans!  Remarkably, only 17% of respondents to ECFR’s poll see Russia as an adversary; this figure drops down to 5-7%  among Bulgarians and Italians. 

The report warns, “There’s been a major collapse in Germans trust in the European Union”. 

Naturally such an undertow from the ongoing pandemic may play a unpredictable role as     Germany approaches pivotal national elections in late September. 

Viewing the bigger picture, there’s no doubt that the American image has taken serious  political hits in Europe especially since the Iraq War in 2003.   European media outlets, very often reflecting the U.S. mainstream media animus, had glibly demonized the George W. Bush and especially Donald Trump Administrations.  This reality still negatively impacts on transatlantic relations.   It needs to be resolved. 

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                   May in Manhattan!!!

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Remembering Prince Philip

A page has turned on the House of Windsor. Prince Philip, the husband of Queen Elizabeth II, 

has died at 99 just short of his hundredth birthday. 

The long serving consort to the Queen has lived a notable and indeed remarkable, if sometimes controversial life.  The Queen (94) described Philip, her husband of 73 years as “my strength and stay all these years.”  Philip’s passing at Windsor Castle has “left a huge void in her life.”

Princess Elizabeth married Philip in 1947; on his wedding day, he was made Duke of Edinburgh.

Quite unexpectedly just a few years into marriage, Elizabeth became Queen upon the death 

of her father George VI, Britain’s beloved wartime King.  Elizabeth and Philip heard the sad news in 1952 while at the Treetops Lodge in Kenya.  It was time to stand up and serve.  

Later at the time of Elizabeth’s Coronation in June 1953, Philip the “media savvy” prince, 

insisted that the splendid Royal ceremonies and pageantry be presented on that new medium called television.  It was a step toward modernity and transformation of the institution of the monarchy.  

His family roots rested in complicated bouillabaisse of royalty from Greece, Germany and  Denmark.  

This was a long time ago.  President Dwight Eisenhower was in the White House.  Winston Churchill was British Prime Minister. The Korean War was still raging.  Elvis was yet to be    famous. 

Coverage of Prince Philip’s passing has generally been fair, but has often swerved into the 

editorial weeds by sometimes viewing this man through a contemporary Woke lens.  Philip was a scion of a very different generation, an era really, one that served and went through the         tumultuous years of WWII, and then lived through the heady but threadbare years after 1945, often known as  Austerity Britain.

Prince Philip was in many ways a living figure who bridged the generations from postwar-Britain to the present.  His keen interest in science and technology, his initiatives for young   people, the Duke of Edinburgh’s awards,  has helped more than eight million young people around the Commonwealth achieve their dreams. His role in a myriad of charities underscored his compassion.   

   

His notable quips and sometimes gaffes were typical of his generation but often hurtful. 

Again he reflected another era. 

Conrad Black, writing in Canada’s National Post opined, “He always had that fine royal      combination of self-confidence without pomposity. ”

The mega series on the Royals, the Crown, has brought these figures to life and has done a

good job of it; yet, most people will recall Philip in a less than positive light regarding their      bumpy years of marriage during the 1950’s.   

The Crown series while blending fact and fiction serves to “demystify” the Royals.  

At the same time Philip stressed making the monarch “modern and relevant”. He was clearly a modernizer but at the same time a fellow whose gravitas was proudly rooted in traditions.   

His BBC TV obituary recorded the Prince as “a man of strong views and a strong sense of Duty.”   One can add he was steadfast in his duties and was loyal to the crown.  All wonderful attributes but often echoing another age.  

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated somberly, “Prince Philip earned the affection of  generations here in the United Kingdom, across the Commonwealth and around the world.

…one of the last surviving people in this country to have served in the second world war.”

“It is to Her Majesty, and her family, that our nation’s thoughts must turn today,” the prime    minister added.

Lauded throughout the Commonwealth’s 54 nations from Canada to Kenya and India to         Malaysia, Philip often visited far flung shores. 

 Indeed, the “Special Relationship” between the United States and Britain endures as an alliance and partnership.  

 

Philip may have been the dutiful unsung hero.  But Britain’s Monarchy is not all smoke, mirrors and mystery but a very tangible cohesive force which binds the country together in spite of     politics, fads and the occasional errant Prince.  The institution, its history, and its meaning go well beyond pomp and glitter. 

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America's Back in Europe--Did We Ever Leave? 

“I’m sending a clear message to the world: America is back. The transatlantic alliance is back,” President Joe Biden affirmed to a high level assembly of European leaders.  I didn’t realize we had left.  

“The transatlantic alliance is a strong foundation, the strong foundation, on which our collective security and our shared prosperity are built,” the President intoned on video link to the Munich Security Conference (MSC).  I could not agree more.  This clearly represents the collective security policy which defended Western Europe in the post-war era from Soviet aggression and allowed the continent to regain its prosperity in freedom and liberty.  

Despite all the rhetoric and occasional rancor across the Atlantic during the earlier years of the Trump Administration, the United States did not reduce its troop commitments in NATO nor did it renege on the critical Article 5, the mutual security guarantee that an attack on one is an attack on all.  

But in the sphere of transatlantic policy, it’s the old style over substance argument.  The Europeans clearly didn’t like the Donald’s style; the U.S. President, ever the bottom line businessman,  pushed for fulfilling financial commitments and demanding results. 

Joe Biden on the other hand, told the gathered Euroland leaders what they wished to hear, but without making clear commitments.  

Regarding substance,  the Trump Administration despite its initial bluster, did not reduce the American military footprint in Europe.  Between 2006 and 2018, (largely before Trump) the number of American  forces stationed in Germany more than halved, from 72,400 to 33,250,  reflecting a changing global security situation.
   

President Biden stated, “I know the past few years have strained and tested our transatlantic relationship, but the United States is determined — determined to reengage with Europe, to consult with you, to earn back our position of trusted leadership.”

The prestigious Munich Security Conference held in the Bavarian capital,  emerges as the epicenter of global diplomacy, setting the gold standard for transatlantic relations. 

Just last year, at this very same Conference, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo scoffed at the idea that the USA was disinterested or disengaged from Europe; he stated, “I am happy to report that the death of the transatlantic alliance is grossly over-exaggerated.”  He exclaimed, “The West is winning. We are collectively winning. We are doing it together.” 
 
On China, President Biden warned, “we must prepare together for a long-term strategic competition with China…  Competition with China is going to be stiff. ”  To President Biden’s chagrin, the European Union entered into a major trade deal with China.

Viewing  the threat from Russia, Joe Biden stated, “The Kremlin attacks our democracies and weaponizes corruption to try to undermine our system of governance.”  He added, “Putin seeks to weaken the European project and our NATO Alliance.  He wants to undermine the transatlantic unity and our resolve.”   That’s certainly true but not the first time. 

Former Secretary Pompeo underscored similar Russian security challenges; “Let’s talk about territorial integrity, or rather, those nations that have contempt for it.  Russia has seized Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine and Georgia.”

The point is that on substance, the Transatlantic weathervane has not shifted dramatically with the Biden Administration as the adoring mainstream media suggests, but rather still reflects the post-war bi-partisan consensus which helped win the Cold War. 

Yet a very disconcerting poll taken among 15,000 Europeans in ten EU member states reflects their view of the American commitment.  The European Council on Foreign Relations poll states, “Very few Europeans believe the United States will intervene on their behalf in the event of a military crisis.  Just 10% of those polled held the view that the US was a ‘reliable’ security partner that will always protect Europe, while at least 60% of respondents in every country polled, felt their country could not depend on US support in the event of a major crisis.”  

There is deep unease towards the United States in the event of conflict with China or Russia,  with many Europeans keen to be neutral in such a scenario…  “in no country did a majority want to take Washington’s side against Russia.”  This is seriously troubling.  

Is this the cherished Transatlantic solidarity ?  

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 COVID Crisis Devastates Global Health, Stability

The global pandemic has devastated health standards, the economy, and through stress and the undertow of uncertainty and hardships has affected the sanity of citizens worldwide.  Lockdowns, arbitrary regulations, school closings are taking their toll on the social fabric.   

Now as a second wave of the Wuhan Covid virus is sweeping Western Europe, and spiking in places as varied is South Africa, India and Brazil, Dr. Hans Kluge, WHO’s Regional Director for Europe warns, “This moment represents a tipping-point in the course of the pandemic, where science, politics, technology and values must form a united front, in or to push back this  persistent and elusive virus.”   He added, that “more than 230 million people are living in      countries under full national lockdown, and more governments are expected to announce lockdowns.”  

Last year more than 26 million COVID-19 cases were confirmed throughout Europe.  Dr. Kluge added “This is an alarming situation, which means that for a short period of time we need to do more than we have done and to intensify the public health.”  Two million people have died worldwide. 

Earlier in the crisis  people assumed and were told, “Europe got it right in treating and isolating” the virus.  Maybe for a while;  but since the Autumn countries ranging from France to Spain, Germany and Italy are in the deadly crosshairs of Corona.  The United Kingdom faces a  particularity lethal “second strain” of the virus which has prompted Prime Minister Boris     Johnson to practically shut the country down as the outbreaks surge from London.  

Given the lockdown people in England, Scotland and Wales must stay home and only can go out for limited reasons.  

Britain’s National Health Service is strained to the breaking point with new hospital admissions.

In France lockdowns have closed cafes and restaurants, and restricted travel.  The Macron     government has mandated a curfew in major cities to control the outbreaks; the 6 PM to 5 AM curfew has strained nerves and shattered small businesses.    

France has seen numbers surge with expanding daily infection rates despite the lockdown. 

Portugal, which fared quite well during last year's pandemic surge, now faces a particularly deadly

encounter with Covid.  Hospitals in the Lisbon region are filled with Covid patients. 

Europe’s grim numbers are worth noting; the United Kingdom has seen 95,000 deaths,  Italy 84,000, France 72,000 and Germany 50,000.  

Significantly the USA faces a steep fatality rate from Covid; over 400,000 Americans have died in less than a year. Correspondingly the U.S. is facing a relatively mild flu season; largely in part to the COVID-19 safety precautions as well as more than 188 million flu vaccinations.  Both flu and Covid deaths, especially among the elderly population, tend to affect people with multiple underlying health conditions. 

A Vaccine to the rescue?  We have finally have the tool if not silver bullet to stop the Covid spread. America’s much maligned Operation Warp Speed delivered and has fast tracked and helped develop a safe vaccine for the USA.  But many state governments and politicians are    acting like the proverbial Keystone Cops in directing and misdirecting  vaccine distribution.  New York state has stumbled with changing regulations and priorities.

But look at the data.  Vaccine distribution in Israel, the United Kingdom and the USA,  lead the world in the number of vaccine doses administered; as a percent of the population vaccinated, the American rate stands at about three times higher than most other European countries such as Italy and Germany. 

The Biden Administration is pushing for a Herculean effort, backed by signing fifteen Executive Orders,  to deliver one million shots daily in one hundred days.  Will the President’s Pen magically make U.S. Pharma firms produce more vaccine doses to shortly appear in clinics across America ? 

Further afield, Iran’s Ayatollahs say no to the Anglo/American vaccines so they are probably   looking to China for the jab.  Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made unsubstantiated claims that the American and British vaccines were “untrustworthy.”   He decreed,         “importing vaccines made in the US or the UK is prohibited.”  So far 56,000 Iranians have died during the pandemic.  Let’s face it, Iran’s clerical elite will probably get a U.S. vaccine!

Islamic Iran has banned imports of the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca/Oxford   vaccines.   

In a strange twist,  Argentina who should know better, has decided to use the Russian Sputnik vaccine!  Argentina became the first country in Latin America to use the Russian shots.  But in a bid to get an additional 15 million vaccines, Argentina’s socialist Fernandez government is     currently in talks with China to procure the Sinovac vaccine.  China’s President Xi Jinping said that his country is “ready to work” with Argentina to boost cooperation. 

But the depth of the global crisis goes beyond borders.  UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres

warned,  “We are at a 1945 moment, but this is not 1945.  Today’s war is against a microscopic virus.  Tomorrow’s could be against terrorists in cyberspace. “    

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                                                KING for a Day!

Galette des Rois 

Kings Cake

A traditional pastry celebrating the Epiphany (6 January) the Galettes de Rois are popular in France and Quebec during most of January.  The puff pastry with a layer of delicious frangipane also has versions which are popular in New Orleans.

While the cake is known as as offering to the Three Kings, each pastry holds a small porcelain figurine usually of a religious nature.  The person who finds the prize La Feve becomes King for a day but often gains the obligation to purchase the next cake for the family. 

                 The paper crown can also be worn by the lucky person who discovers the Feve!

                                       The lucky Bean or the Feve!