Musical Chairs at UN Security Council
In an annual process of diplomatic musical chairs the 193 member UN General Assembly has picked five countries to serve on the Security Council as non-permanent members. Estonia, Niger, Tunisia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Vietnam were elected to two-year terms on the powerful Council starting next January.
The elections, or rather selections, since most of the seats were unopposed are chosen to reflect regional representation from Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe. The members join the fifteen member Security Council which is responsible for international peace and security and controlled by the permanent five veto holding members, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
While there’s intense behind the scenes lobbying and horse trading by contenders for a place on the prestigious Council, regional groups agree on consensus candidates or new members who never served as in the case of Estonia or the Caribbean island state of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Realistically what does this mean in terms of Council balance and, as importantly, its effect on U.S. policy?
Let's consider the new East European seat for a moment.
Estonia trounced Romania in the only competitive race. The Baltic democracy scored an impressive 132 to 58 in a second secret ballot. Estonia, whose sovereignty was only restored in 1991 after a long Soviet occupation, has emerged as one of Eastern Europe’s most prosperous and technologically wired countries.
Following the successful vote, Estonia’s President Kersti Kaljulaid stated, it’s an historic moment, and the membership is “another layer on Estonia’s security shield.” On the Council for the first time, Estonia replaces Poland whose tenure strongly supported Western values.
So what are the likely Council dynamics and moreover what does this new constellation of forces mean for U.S. policy come January?
Given the ongoing political frustrations from ongoing East/West Security Council deadlock,
between Britain/France/USA versus both Russia and China, it’s highly unlikely the new members will create an appreciable tilt away from the current diplomatic logjam on key issues ranging from Syria to Burma (Myanmar), North Korea, Ukraine or Venezuela.
Estonia remains a strong and steadfast U.S. ally. Much like Poland, Estonia is a member of both NATO and the European Union. Given that both countries are close American partners, the seat stays in the Positive column.
Given the Security Council’s dangerously deadlocked dynamic, it’s time overdue to seek common ground.
