Thursday, June 29, 2017

Comment du Jour

Helmut Kohl—Architect of German Unity 



Thirty years ago this week in 1987, President Ronald Reagan visiting Berlin, made his famous challenge,  “Mr. Gorbachev, Tear Down This Wall.”  Alongside the American President stood German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. 

A few years earlier I met Helmut Kohl campaigning in his native Rheinland.   Kohl, a towering but slightly awkward provincial politician, was often described to Americans as an amicable Gerry Ford type-character, evoking our own president of a decade earlier.  It was not totally a compliment.  Yet through perseverance and fate, this man from a small Western German city became a statesman on the world stage not just because of German unity, but because that singular achievement came about in peace, liberty and freedom. Kohl has died at the age of 87.

His formal election as Chancellor came in early March 1983.  I vividly recall watching the fog lift over the river Rhine in the great Cathedral city of Cologne that Sunday election morning.  By evening in Bonn the capital, I witnessed the landslide of his Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Free Democrats (FDP) which ushered in the opening act of the Helmut Kohl era.  His  political tenure would continue through sixteen years. 

Kohl was deeply committed to the Atlantic Alliance.  Yet standing shoulder to shoulder with the USA in NATO in the early 1980’s was not as popular as it was assumed either inside Germany or on the American Left where a loud minority “Peace movement” created an atmosphere where many people viewed the U.S. as looking to start a nuclear war.   Kohl stood fast against left wing political theatrics. 

Though the summer and fall of 1989 saw political rumblings in the Soviet Empire in Hungary and Poland, even otherwise hardline East Germany witnessed large and vocal  demonstrations against the ruling communist regime.  

Yet it was in Berlin where the anvil of freedom would strike against the Soviet Imperium.   The Joshua trumpet which sounded in 9 November 1989 heralded the historic events which would release a tsunami of liberty sweeping across Central Europe.  By the end of 1989, it  had torn through the old Iron Curtain and had shed the bright light of freedom. 

But contrary to the accepted narrative, the fall of the Berlin Wall did not see the immediate demise of the  “German Democratic Republic” whose Stasi and Soviet enforcers did not disappear with the November mist.   Kohl advanced a democratic ten-point plan for reunification.  Ambitious and costly yes, but one which would integrate 17 million East Germans as equals.     


Kohn’s miscalculation was that he said basically the old East Germany would need a fresh coat of paint and before long the landscape would be blooming.  But decades of socialist mismanagement and  repression had created a deeper challenge.  Over the past quarter century since, the cost of reunification  has been over a trillion dollars in massive infrastructural and social benefit transfers.

Chancellor Kohl was the architect of German unity on 3 October 1990, but the supporting cast included statesman and women who allowed it to happen.  George H.W. Bush, Francois Mitterrand. Margaret Thatcher and Russia’s Mikhail Gorbachev.  In other words, the allies of WWII, who had defeated the Nazi regime in 1945, had to legally sign off on the occupation and allow the reunification of both West and East Germany.  The Cold War had ended.  

Here at the UN, reunification meant that the two German delegations awarded membership in 1973 representing two separate states, namely the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic, would merge into one representing a united German nation.  

After reunification Kohl kept close links with the USA and especially stressed the importance of Transatlantic ties through NATO.  Within Europe Kohl was close to French President Francois Mitterrand and is well remembered for a moving and mournful ceremony in Verdun, the killing field of the First World War.    


He was especially committed to Germany’s European identity within the emerging economic and political power of the European Union (EU).  His protege Angela Merkel became Chancellor in 2005.

Helmut Kohl’s bold decisiveness and political vision helped achieve both German and indeed European unity.  These extraordinary events,  now a generation ago, were underscored by former President George H. W. Bush who called Kohl “One of the greatest leaders in post-war Europe.”


Thursday, June 15, 2017

Comment du Jour

May Day for Britain's Theresa May

It’s political May Day for Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May after what appeared as a massive miscalculation in calling a general election which she narrowly won.  

Though the ruling Conservative party gained the largest share of seats and votes in the 650 seat Parliament,  the party fell sadly short of a majority, thus causing the “Hung Parliament” in which a coalition must again be formed. 


Theresa May’s roll of the political dice to call for early elections were based on her gamble to win a powerful majority strong unified government which was needed in the wake of last year’s still reverberating BREXIT vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union.  BREXIT talks on the UK/EU separation begins in mid-June amid an uneasy instability in London. As May predicted prior to the vote, “Now more than ever, Britain needs a strong and stable government to get the best deal for our country.” Indeed, but now there’s more confusion both in Britain and throughout the European Union concerning the complicated pattern of EU separation. 


Tragically Theresa May’s snap election was shadowed by the specter of terrorism, both the appalling attacks in Manchester and London in which Islamist jihadi terrorists hit soft, civilian targets killing 30.  Concerning the terrorists she said, “They are bound together by the single evil ideology of Islamist extremism that preaches hatred, sows division and promotes sectarianism…Defeating this ideology is one of the great challenges of our time.”


The Conservatives won 318 seats but that’s eight seats short of a majority.  The Labour Party, which has lurched dangerously leftwards under current leader Jeremy Corbyn gained seats and now has 262, a gain of 31 seats.  Labour has posted the most socialist and left wing manifesto since the early 1980’s prompting even many former luminaries such as former Prime Minister Tony Blair to distance himself from the current party.  


Theresa May will forge a “Government of Certainty” with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).  Yet May’s call for a “government of certainty” somehow lacks the ring and the rhetoric of steely Thatcherite resolve or for that matter anything more than a stopgap solution for a very complicated political problem of her own making.   She is viewed as “a weak and wounded leader” according to a good source in London.  Her credibility even among the Tories is weakened and recriminations abound. 


So what does the Hung Parliament realistically mean for Britain and her standing abroad?  Again the albatross of BREXIT talks begins with a shadow over the outcome of the proposed break.  Yet while the UK may be formally renegotiating its trade patterns with the continent, Britain has striven for reinvigorated bi-lateral trade pacts with many key nations European states such as France and Germany as well as with countries such as India.


Yet, May’s conservatives hardly possess the political gravitas of the former Thatcherite party which was far more philosophically wedded to free markets than to wider governmental regulation.  


When it comes to NATO and defense the current government will hold to the agreed 2 percent GNP military spending.  Interestingly Labour supported this point as well.  The government will equally keep its high levels of overseas development aid spending at 0.7 percent making Britain one of the highest foreign aid donors in the world.  


Britain will remain a strong player in the United Nations.

There’s no question that May will remain close to the USA and shall be a reliable partner in the international arena.  That’s the good news. 


But will Theresa May’s “Government of Certainty” bring the needed stability and confidence both to markets and to citizens?  Sadly, I feel the UK may be facing another election before too long.