Comment du Jour

New Year's Eve's Ship Lighting.

Sponsored by the Save the SS United States

ssusc.org

Don't let America's Flagship sail into the sunset...

We're giving 2016 a sparkling send-off by lighting up the SS United States! Details here http://www.ssusc.org/event/a-new-years-eve-salute-of-light/ …

Comment du Jour

Countdown to Christmas in New York!

Comment du Jour

Beaujolais Nouveau!!

The Beaujolais Nouveau wine has arrived! I Just tasted the iconic autumn wine at
New York's Sherry Lehmann.

The wine was personally presented for tasting by Franck Duboeuf of the famed Georges Duboeuf wines.

Typically Beaujolais Nouveau is a "young and fruity" wine which is a particularly nice accompaniment to Thanksgiving Turkey!

                                    Franck Duboeuf at Sherry Lehmann in New York.
                                                                 A Votre Sante!

Comment du Jour

Hungary Commemorates 60th Anniversary of Revolution    1956-2016

The 60th anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution is being commemorated.

On 23 October 1956 the fight for freedom from the Soviets began in Budapest and soon spread throughout Hungary.   For a brief period Hungarian Freedom Fighters fought the Soviet forces to a standstill.  The free government begged for foreign aid to prevent the inevitable.  Help from the West, though promised, never came  

 The massive Soviet counterattack came on 5 November which 
brutally smashed the uprising.

The Hungarian UN Mission/Consulate in New York is flying the national flag as well as 
the Freedom Flag with the center torn out.  Revolutionaries ripped out communist symbols
from flags in 1956 leaving this Flag with the Hole as a poignant reminder of the ill-fated
uprising.  

Comment du Jour

New UN Secretary General: Guterres Gets It

Parabens Portugal!

White smoke has emerged from the Security Council, where the powerful fifteen member body, has selected a new UN Secretary General from among a dozen declared candidates.  Intense diplomatic deliberations among the powers,  hectic lobbying among the candidates, and rife speculation in the international community came to a surprisingly quick conclusion with a unanimous vote electing a respected former Portuguese Prime Minister to head the 193-member organization. 

Antonio Guterres, (67) who was until recently chief of the UN Refugee Agency  (UNHCR) was elected to become the UN’s new Secretary General.   Ending a year of intense behind the scenes politicking, more than a dozen candidates, and an unwritten pledge that the next Secretary General should be a woman from Eastern Europe, nonetheless in the end Guterres got the nod from the Security Council. 

The election of the Secretary General, or more precisely the selection, emerged after the Security Council held a number of unofficial “straw ballots” to assess the strengths and weaknesses of a plethora of candidates.   Antonio Guterres who consistently polled first in six “straw polls”  was a clear favorite from the start, but still faced a possible veto from the Russians.     Over the past six months in a move for overdue transparency, the various candidates were publicly vetted through speeches and town hall type settings. Some contenders such as Bulgaria’s once favorite Irina Bokova or Slovenia’s Daniel Turk failed to get serious traction.        Yet, from the start Antonio Guterres cut an impressive policy swath combining a sense of competence, confidence and charisma in his audition for the UN’s top job.  

Early in the process a number of European Ambassadors told this writer, “You must hear Guterres. He is the best so far.”  

Britain’s Ambassador Matthew Rycroft said that Antonio Guterres “will take the United Nations to the next level in terms of leadership” and furthermore be “a moral authority at a time when the world is divided on issues.”  

So as the two term tenure of South Korea’s Ban Ki-moon comes to an end, what does Antonio Guterres really inherit?  

Antonio Guterres is an electrical engineer by profession but later went into politics an subsequently become Portugal’s Prime Minister between 1995-2002.  A member of the Socialist party (though from its more moderate wing), his tenure was marked with close relations to the European Union (EU) and the USA.  

 Given that the world is facing the largest refugee crisis since the end of WWII, with more than 65 million fleeing their homelands, it may be fitting and indeed wise to select a candidate who has distinguished himself  over a decade in humanitarian efforts to help the displaced.   As I often say, the UN has done an admirable job in treating the staggering humanitarian symptoms of global crises but has failed to solve the actual problems causing the refugee flows.  Syria, Libya and Afghanistan come to mind.

The UN system is confronted by a world in crisis; humanitarian missions, the spread of ethnic/religious conflict, widening peacekeeping mandates, and trying to break the rigid diplomatic logjam in the Security Council are but a few of the challenges.   More distressing remains the Crisis overload from a plethora of failed states and dystopian regimes which have created a humanitarian tsunami facing any new Secretary General.
May I mention a few names? Afghanistan, Congo, Central African Republic, Libya, Syria, Somalia,  Sudan, Yemen.  Then there’s North Korea’s nuclear weapons.  

 As a longstanding member of NATO and the European Union, Portugal, and Guterres by extension had the support of Britain, France and later the USA.  He was apparently able to cajole both Russia and China from using their vetoes to block his candidacy, though one expects him to appoint a Deputy Secretary General of Moscow’s liking from Eastern Europe to close the deal. 

We wish him well and good luck!!   

Comment du Jour

Steuben Parade in New York

The 59th annual German American Steuben Day Parade
marched up Fifth Avenue to the tunes of brass bands and
yes, even bagpipes!

The parade route went from 68th Street to 86th Street on the Upper East Side, ending
in Yorkville once the thriving cultural hub of the German/American community.

The event  honors the important role played by
Baron Frederich Wilhelm von Steuben in helping and training
America's Revolutionary Army during the War of Independence.

Grand Marshalls included German Ambassador Peter Wittig and former Olympic medalist
Katarina Witt.

Among the groups participating from Germany...

                                             Statt Garde Colonia Ahoj

                                               
Of course football...both European and American.

Marchers from across the New York area, Germany and Austria joined
in the festivities under beautiful September skies.

Groups from the New York City Police and Fire Department Steuben Societies marched along too,

along with ethnic clubs from New Jersey and Long Island.

And of course the Beer Floats!

Until Next Year!!

Auf Wiedersehen!

Comment du Jour

Slovakia—Central Europe’s Quiet Success Story

Bratislava Hosts EU Summit

 The majestic Danube River connects Vienna, Bratislava and Budapest.  Just 40 miles downriver from Vienna, the historic city of Bratislava rises above the Danubian plain.  Still the turrets of Bratislava castle on the hill are more picturesque than forbidding but are usually missed in a journey between Vienna and Budapest. Yet here awaits a positive story, largely overlooked by the major media but very well known to foreign investors.
.
First a bit of history.  Once part of the Austro/Hungarian Empire, after the First World War,
what is today’s Slovakia formed part of old Czechoslovakia founded in 1918.  Following the Second World War, Czechoslovakia fell under communist control and was part of the East Bloc.  .First a bit of history.  Once part of the Austro/Hungarian Empire, after the First World War,what is today’s Slovakia formed part of old Czechoslovakia founded in 1918.  Following the Second World War, Czechoslovakia fell under communist control and was part of the East Bloc.  
Despite its relative proximity to Vienna, during the Cold War, Bratislava was largely forgotten and forsaken until 1989 when this epic year of freedom, bought Eastern Europe and with it  Czechoslovakia, out of the cold.

In what was called the velvet divorce, Slovakia peacefully separated in 1993 from Czechoslovakia in a move many pundits thought imprudent, but were proven wrong.  Bratislava is the capital of this country of five and a half million people  (5.5 million).

Though certainly in the shadow of opulent Vienna or even Budapest, historically Bratislava, once known by its Hungarian name Pozsnoy, was a city of eleven royal coronations.  During the Ottoman/Turkish occupation of Hungary,  this city served as the seat of Royal Hungary.  In June 1741, Maria Theresa, one of Austria’s most powerful monarchs, was crowned at St. Martin’s Cathedral.   (above picture)

Nonetheless Bratislava, this gem of a once thriving royal city, is not yet a tourist nexus.  
From the dark days of the Cold War and socialist economy, since 1989 through hard work and focused policy, Slovakia has emerged as a multi-party democracy and an economic success story.  Freedom House, the human rights watchdog group adds, “Slovakia has been among the most obvious economic success stories in post-communist Europe, and with economic growth topping 3 percent in 2015, it is one of the fastest growing economies in the European Union (EU). ”

According to the media monitor Reporters Without Borders, Slovakia ranks number 12 globally in press freedoms out of 180 countries;  just behind Austria but ahead of Canada and the USA.


The Washington based Heritage Foundation think tank adds, “A prudent regulatory framework for the financial sector combined with competitive tax rates has fueled Slovakia’s transition into a flexible and vibrant market-based economy with considerable resilience. Openness to foreign trade and investment has positioned the country as one of the most attractive destinations for foreign direct investment in Europe.”   

The country has become home to high profile manufacturing industries. Korean firms such as Samsung produce widescreen TV for the European market.
Though Slovakia was traditionally known for its heavy industries during the socialist era, the country has in a sense reinvented itself with far reaching market reforms to attract investors.


Surprisingly Slovakia is one of the world’s largest auto producers with Germany’s Volkswagen, the French PSA Peugeot Citroën and  South Korea’s Kia Motors as major manufacturers. Over a quarter million people are employed in the automotive industry.  Labor costs are far below those of Germany and France.  

American firms such as Dell, HP,  IBM and Microsoft are well established in the computer and IT sector.  Research & Development and computer security centers thrive and form a vital element in Slovakia’s rich high-tech landscape.   

Two way trade between Slovakia and the USA reached $2.7 billion in 2015.  
Last year Slovakia attracted $479 million in foreign investment mostly from Europe and East Asia.  Foreign Direct Investment into Slovakia increased to $2,6 billion in the first half of 2016.

Given that Slovakia is a member of the European Union since 2004, as well as in the Euro currency zone,  the country is well poised for intra-European trade.  Equally, geography and transport routes favor Slovakia which is located as a transit hub between West and East.  However, there’s a dangerous dependence on Russian energy supplies.  

On the international front Slovakia is a member of both the European Union and NATO, a vital insurance policy for the country. Though currently holding the rotating Presidency of the European Union, Slovakia’s tenure has been overshadowed by the British BREXIT crisis.  Slovakia has provided troops to the NATO mission in Afghanistan as well as to UN peacekeeping missions.  


Slovak Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajcek is currently a candidate for the post of UN Secretary General.

 While the mighty Danube binds Slovakia into central Europe, the high Tatra mountains exemplify the spirit of  this small country to excel and reach for the heights.   . 

Comment du Jour

French Police Thwart a serious Terrorist Attack planned near Notre Dame.

Significantly Paris still remains under threat from Islamic State terrorists.

Comment du Jour

Paris  Tourism Numbers Fall in Summer of Strikes, Floods and Terror


It's pretty obvious for anyone walking around Paris that there are noticeably far fewer tourists than usual.  Sadly the City of Light, and France for the most part, is still suffering from 
the media coverage fallout of strikes, floods and most especially a series of high profile terrorist attacks. 

Official numbers show one million fewer tourists visited Paris in the first six months of this year.  In fact about 16 million tourists visit Paris annually but the numbers have taken a dip.

There are 46 percent fewer Japanese, 35 percent fewer Russians, and 20 percent fewer Chinese.

These three groups make up the nouveau "big spenders" when it comes to shopping in boutiques and pricey shops.

The number Americans visiting surprisingly only dipped by 5.6 percent.    

We certainly felt safe in France but sadly were inconvenienced by an Air France strike.  

And despite all the bad news, Paris is still Paris!

Comment du Jour

France--Summer of Terror Lingers 

Imagine for a moment arriving at Sunday morning religious service only to see the doors of the church guarded by camouflage-clad soldiers with automatic weapons. Well, this was the stark reality when we arrived at our neighborhood church, a structure dating from the 15th century, but hardly a tourist nexus.  Indeed this was a necessary security precaution being taken across France, at synagogues and mosques too, for worshippers in the wake of Islamic State’s barbarous murder of a Catholic priest celebrating mass.

Security is tight at the Catholic shrine of Lourdes where special police and military units are protecting the pilgrimages.

During a Summer when Islamic jihadi fanatics used a truck to ram and kill 85 civilians in Nice, and others carried out shootings and a suicide-bombing in Germany, the violence  reached its sanguinary apotheosis in the sacrilegious crime of killing of an elderly priest, Jacques Hamel, while he was saying Mass near Rouen.

The terror has lingered since jihadi militants carried out the bloody Paris attacks last November.  France remains on edge but stoically sanguine.

Yves de Kerdrel opined in the conservative weekly Valeurs Actuelles, “To the fright of the entire country has been added the repugnance of the French against these barbarians who attacked a man of the Church of peace and of hope. Jacques Hamel has died as a martyr as millions of Christians of the Middle East.”

Speaking of the fanatics who attacked in Paris and Nice, Camille Pascal added in Valeurs, “They attacked God in the name of God…these bloody imbeciles demonstrated their nihilism and in their folly they believed themselves soldiers of God.”

To be sure the terrorist threat facing France is tragically cyclical as it is rooted in the shifting patterns of causes, ideologies and motivations. In the early 1960’s towards the end of the Algerian crisis, France endured a spate of violence.  The 1970’s saw the Palestinian issue spill over into Europe; by the 1990’s Islamic fundamentalists with Algerian connections carried out the infamous RER train bombing in St. Michel station.

Today we see the Middle East in chaos with Syria as the epicenter and the symbol for terrorist recruitment, motivation and violence.   Thousands of European “foreign fighters,” many of them French and Belgian born Muslims, have flocked to fight in the jihad in Syria.  The principal danger comes from those returning to Europe with both the military skills and the elixir of hate with forms the key security threat in France and elsewhere in Europe.

Indeed, the brutal Syrian civil war churns on with its physical and psychological carnage which extends beyond the besieged city of Aleppo and the environs of ancient Damascus. Until Syria’s bleeding can be stopped and healed there is a key motivator for violence which has a way of then returning to the cities of Europe and later the USA.

  Can we be certain the waves of migrants fleeing war, over a million of whom have gone to Germany alone, will not bring the hatreds and mores of the Middle East to their new places of refuge?

Predictably foreign tourism has suffered though we felt safe.  As France readies to return from the Summer vacation, the government has heightened alerts for schools which could tragically become targets.  The security awareness campaign Vigipirate; Alert to Attacks evokes messages in American cities; “If you see something, say something.”

France’s Socialist President Francois Hollande, much like Barack Obama, while treating the symptoms of violence, still really refuse to admit the dangerous depth and source of the radical Islamist problem inside their countries.

So in this Summer of 2016, strange memories return.  A sense of déjà vu if you wish.  As a young boy on my first visit here in June 1962 on the eve of Algerian independence, I vividly recall the odd thrill of seeing soldiers in the streets of Paris and viewing the massive base legs of the Eiffel Tower surrounded in webs of barbed wire.  That was so long ago I thought, but as if in a nightmare, the images have returned.

Comment du Jour

 United Nations Secretary General Election Heats Up

 What’s beginning to look like this year’s Republican presidential primaries in the USA has morphed into a political scramble for the UN Secretary General’s seat.

With a dozen prospective candidates, the race for the new Secretary General has now overshadowed much of the work at the multinational organization.  As incumbent South Korean Ban Ki-moon enters the final six months of his second five year term, the political crescendo has heightened with unending lobbying and jockeying for the coveted post.

Geographical representation and consensus has deemed that this time around it’s the “turn” of an Eastern European woman to fill the post.  Ban Ki-moon represented East Asia’s turn while Kofi Annan before him represented Africa’s.   

While national pride and diplomatic status are enshrined in the position of being the global Chief Executive of the 193 member multinational organization, the selection rather than election, usually goes to a consensus candidate from a smaller and often neutral country.  South Korea’s Ban, backed by the U.S., was a notable exception coming from an East Asian powerhouse state.  His recent predecessors were from Ghana, Egypt and Peru.      

The Secretary General’s race is usually determined behind closed doors, (smoke filled rooms are long gone with the UN smoking ban), with glimmers of information and light being tightly  controlled.  But the traditionally Byzantine selection process has changed.   

This time around, transparency has become the mantra whereby all kinds of roundtables, speeches and even a debate in the cavernous UN General Assembly Hall are trying to bring a public focus to an arcane process.  Yet no matter what talents and virtues may be available among the candidates, the stark political reality remains the Delphic diplomatic judgement of the Permanent Five members of the Security Council, Britain, China, France, Russia and the USA who will quietly but forcibly determine the outcome.  Only then, later in the process, does the full General Assembly get the chance vote on the selection.

U.S./UN Ambassador Samantha Power said the candidate must have “leadership and management skills.”

Among the dozen declared candidates, only a few are actually from Eastern Europe and are women.  A strong contender, Irina Bokova of Bulgaria, currently runs UNESCO, the UN cultural and scientific organization based in Paris.  Though hardly a dynamic speaker,  Bokova to her credit has been openly supportive of protecting historic sites in the Middle East from jihadi terrorist looting and destruction.  Her negatives include close links to Bulgaria’s former communist regime back in the bad old days.  She is said to be a Russian favorite.  

Moldova and Croatia have nominated former Foreign Ministers, both women for the post.  

Macedonia and Montenegro fielded former Ministers too.  Serbia, not to be outdone, nominated  Vuk Jeremic, a former ultra-nationalist foreign minister who is said to be a Moscow minion.

Yet as a ranking East European diplomat told this writer, the selection of Secretary General reflects a profoundly different setting than even a decade ago given a more unstable world.  Though the U.S. and China pressed for Ban Ki-moon and Russia acquiesced, now the international situation remains dangerously more polarized.   

Danilo Turk,  Slovenia’s President and a former UN official offers a tried and true candidate with serious potential.  Turk hails from a small successful democracy.  Slovakia’s Miroslav Lajcak, the Foreign Minister, is also in the running.  Both are from European Union and NATO countries.

As if this process does not begin to evoke the American primaries, recall that the objective was a female candidate from Eastern Europe.  But geography has blurred;  Among the frontrunners are Former Prime Minister Helen Clark from New Zealand,  Susan Malcorra  Argentina’s Foreign Minister, Antonio Guterres former Portuguese Prime Minister, and Costa Rica’s Christina Figueres.  Some insiders assert that in an impasse German Chancellor Angela Merkel, 

herself from eastern Germany, could be chosen. 

When asked whether the new Secretary General should be from Eastern Europe or a woman, British Ambassador Matthew Rycroft opined, “No, the UK believes that we need to select the strongest person for the job.  The qualities of leadership are the most important.”  

In presentations evoking Congressional hearings,  Antonio Guterres, the affable Portuguese who recently ran the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), a herculean task in this chaotic world, offered an brilliant analytical presentation on the monumental task facing the Secretary General. 

Slovakia’s Lajcak, significantly stressed the dire need for “preventive diplomacy.”  The Slovak Foreign Minister implored that, a “priority would be to prevent conflict and war.”   Preventive diplomacy, often overlooked in a UN beset by the crisis du jour,  remains vital.

The fifteen member Security Council will hold informal and non-binding straw polls to vet the names till the final voting in the Fall. In the first poll, both Guterres and Turk surged in support. 

A dozen contenders, six of them women,  are competing for the world’s top global job; but have they considered what the winner will be inheriting? 

Comment du Jour

Portugal Defeats France in EURO 2016 Final

Game of Destiny

In a tough defensive match, in which its star player Ronaldo was injured,  
Portugal defeated the favorite France 1-0.   While hardly a showcase final match, the
showdown in St. Denis outside Paris saw a determined Portuguese team hold 
on to what seemed to be a French advantage on home turf.

Portugal has not defeated France in a match since 1975.  

Portugal's one goal was scored by Eder but the amazing defense
was the magic of goalkeeper Rui Patricio.  

Congrats to both the French Team and to France for hosting the month long 
tournament beautifully and safely.   

Parabens Portugal! 

Comment du Jour

Les Bleus Melt Iceland in EURO 16 

In an widely anticipated and tense showdown between France and tough newcomer Iceland, 
les Bleus decisively beat Iceland 5-2.  The quarterfinal match in St. Denis outside Paris now
sets the stage for the final week of the EURO 2016 tournament. 

The semi-final schedule is set: Portugal vs Wales
                                                    France  vs Germany

The host nation France marches on to the final four!

Comment du Jour

                             Bad week for Britain!!

BREXIT!!

Markets Dive Downwards!

England Football loss to Iceland! 

Comment du Jour

EURO 2016 Football--Surprises!


The 2016 Euro football/soccer championships seem to be all about surprises,
shock, and awe.  France is hosting the tournament which so far has proved anything
but conventional.  

Iceland shocked the world and toppled England.   

Powerhouse Spain was unseated by Italy.

France, Germany and Belgium are in the quarterfinals but not without a fight.  

Poland survived and will now play powerhouse Portugal.  Wales faces Belgium. 

Teams like Hungary, Ireland and Slovakia edged forward throughout the early matches. 

Again we are reminded that teams like Austria, Hungary Northern Ireland, and Wales  are among the oldest football teams in the world predating both FIFA and UEFA associations.  

As the championships approach the Quarter Finals in France, it looks like Footie fans are in for some amazing face-offs.  

Comment du Jour

Ukraine Fault-line with Russia still Rumbles

The artillery rumbles like a rolling late Spring storm.  Small arms fire reaches a staccato, only to fall silent just as quickly.  And hapless civilians on both sides of an arbitrary divide endure and suffer as the forgotten slow burner conflict in eastern Ukraine continues far from the headlines but embedded in the acute anxiety of European and U.S. policymakers.

The French Senate has called for a lifting of economic sanctions on Russia which were slapped on Moscow after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea two years ago.  Now Military planners in NATO, are running a once unthinkable scenario of major multinational maneuvers aimed at very visibly reinforcing the vulnerable security of Poland and the Baltic states from Vladimir Putin’s political probing.  Meantime the USA remains embroiled in a divisive presidential campaign where foreign policy remains more of a laugh line than a serious focus.

But along the cultural fault-lines which divide Ukraine’s eastern regions bordering Russia, the gritty industrial areas where language, customs and religion are profoundly linked to Moscow’s eastern embrace.  The majority of Ukraine looks westwards towards Europe.

But it is no wonder that in a hyper-nationalist post Soviet polity, that President Putin would press to reintegrate the culturally Russian regions of Ukraine’s east, as well as Crimea.  Moscow’s actions have produced justified fears in the Baltic states that they too may face an inevitable threat to their sovereignty more than 20 years since they broke free from the former Soviet Union.  

There’s genuine reason for concern.  According to  the UN’s  High Commissioner for Human Rights survey, “From mid-April 2014 to 15 May 2016, OHCHR recorded 30,903 casualties in the conflict area in eastern Ukraine, among Ukrainian armed forces, civilians and members of the armed groups.  This includes 9,371 people killed and 21,532 injured.”  

The report adds,  “After two years, the situation in the east of Ukraine remains volatile and

may develop into a ‘frozen conflict’, creating a protracted environment of insecurity and instability; escalate, with dire consequences for civilians living in the conflict- affected area; or move towards sustainable peace through the meaningful implementation of the Minsk Package of Measures. The stakes are high.”  

Yet the same events triggered a slow-burning conflict in which Russia has used its own troops as well as supported and armed unwieldy separatist militias to dismember Ukraine’s territory.  

While openly criticizing both the Ukraine government and the Moscow backed separatist enclaves, the survey clearly states, “In the territories controlled by the armed groups, freedom of expression, including the ability to openly express dissenting views, remained severely restricted.”  Moreover the report adds that in Russian-annexed Crimea,  “residents have witnessed a sharp deterioration of the human rights situation, including the imposition of a new legal framework restrictive of civil liberties, abductions and disappearances, the shutting down of opposition media outlets and the silencing of dissenting voices through the initiation of repressive measures, including abusive criminal proceedings, targeting mainly pro- Ukrainian activists and Crimean Tatar institutions.”

As Vladimir Putin approaches parliamentary elections in the Summer, one wonders if he will make the hyper-nationalist gamble to turn up the heat in eastern Ukraine?  Although relatively weak petroleum prices have put a damper on  Russia’s political maneuverability,  an uptick in the oil price combined with European indifference and  American detachment, could allow for Moscow’s mischief if not wider malevolent moves.      

Comment du Jour

Global Growth Lackluster; Governments Oft Clueless

“Economic activity in the world economy remains lackluster, with little prospect for a turnaround in 2016,” cites the gloomy prognosis by the World Economic Situation and Prospects Update for 2016.  The UN survey cautions that weak global growth “continues to linger,”  posing a serious challenge for governments and economies.

World gross domestic product is only expected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2016.  The tepid expansion reflects what the survey calls  “low investment, low commodity prices and financial market turbulence.”  It adds “bleak prospects have been compounded by severe weather related shocks, political challenge and large capital outflows in many developing regions.”

Hardly a sunny forecast, as the world economy is facing severe drought-related agricultural losses from the cyclical El-Nino weather effect as well as major setbacks in commodity prices.

But besides bad weather we see that in the developed economies “the momentum of growth has slowed significantly.”  In the United States GDP growth is expected to reach only 2.2 percent in 2016  but remains fragile.  The survey states, “The revival of business investment in the United States lost momentum last year culminating in a sharp drop in the final quarter of 2015.”

USA job creation numbers remain lackluster too.

Japan still experiences tepid economic conditions with GDP growth a mere 0.5 percent. Despite its lackluster performance last year, Japan’s economy grew impressively at 1.7 percent in the first quarter of this year.  The report warns that should the government increase a consumption tax from 8 to 10 percent,  “Japan could fall back again into recession in 2017.

European Union economies are expected to expand by 1.9 percent this year and 2 percent next year, but here again growth varies widely among the 28 member states with Germany’s economy still the EU locomotive at 1.5 percent growth.

East Asia again gets among the best marks with regional growth pegged at 5.5 percent this year. Mainland China’s economic deceleration has taken its toll;  Beijing’s once dizzying growth rates have tempered to 7.3 in 2014 and 6.4 percent expected this year.   Not only has China’s economy precipitously slowed but the knock on effect has  been felt especially among commodity exporters in Africa and Latin America.

Yet, Mainland China’s trade with the U.S. continues to surge with a $366 billion trade deficit favoring Beijing last year alone!

 Russia continues to stagnate due to the fall in petroleum prices as well as Western economic sanctions slapped on  Moscow over Ukraine.  Russia’s growth in 2015 recorded a  minus 3.7 while this year a minus 1.9 is expected.  Ukraine’s economy is equally projected to suffer this year.

The enthusiasm over what many economists call the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) seems to have dampened as the once vaunted group has weathered notable economic setbacks which have knocked down many of the BRICS.

The report stresses that persistent weakness in demand in developed economies remains a drag on global growth.  Equally the massive debt levels accumulated by government spending in the USA and much of Europe  has served as an deadweight to hinder a robust economic recovery.

The U.S. must revive its economy through entrepreneurism, not more government spending.

Comment du Jour

Digital Estonia Sets High Tech Bar for Development 

When I first visited Estonia over twenty years ago, the Baltic country had recently regained its independence from the Soviet Union.  Tallinn, the capital and an old Hanseatic trading city, offered an intriguing mix of  medieval architecture and shoddy Soviet style construction.  Situated on the Gulf of Finland, Estonia, though occupied by Moscow, was deceptively close to the free Nordic countries.  

Since regaining its freedom in 1991, Estonia has pursued a fast track to democratic and now digital development.  The building blocks involved a revival of the country’s multi-party traditions and an embrace of free markets.  For example, the Washington based think tank  Heritage Foundation places Estonia’s economic freedom as #9 globally, just behind Ireland, and ahead of the USA and United Kingdom.

Equally Estonia boasts the freest press/media of any of the former Soviet states.  

But while my memories of Estonia are rooted in the country’s rich but turbulent history, I was jolted into the contemporary era by presentations on the country’s leading edge role in the digital age and how this tiny land is harnessing information technology for improved E governance.

Estonia’s dynamic Prime Minister Taavi Roivas (36) visited the UN to present his nation’s success story to the Economic and Social Council.  He underscored Estonia’s role as an example of  innovation, digital technology and how public-private partnerships could boost development. Minister Roivas explained how the economy which was in transition just sixteen years ago, “was now one of the most digitally advanced countries.”   

Prime Minister Roivas asserted that building an advanced digital government and being the birthplace of Skype had “given Estonia  an active start-up scene.”  He stressed that digitation had made both the public and private sectors efficient.  There’s a strong commitment to economic freedom. 

Later during a presentation to the International Peace Institute,  Roivas 

said that the digital government initiatives “provide citizens with a precious resource: time.”  Indeed with less bureaucracy and smart and innovative initiatives, the government has streamlined many procedures such as online voting and paying taxes.  

“Starting a new company in Estonia is done online too and takes about twenty minutes; it’s all digital and no paperwork,” Roivas advised, adding and then “you have a firm up and running with total European Union access.” Top personal and corporate taxes have been reduced to 20 percent.

As the Prime Minister added, “This is not just tech savvy, and not just cool, but transparent.”      A digital policy with ID cards carrying medical and personal information have streamlined services according to officials.  

Estonia is one of the world’s least corrupt countries according to Transparency International.  The digital presence as not just efficient but transparent.  As the Prime Minister jokes, “you can’t bribe a computer.”  

Yet vulnerability to cyber warfare, especially from active networks in neighboring Russia, pose a threat as in 2007 when Estonia was hit by a full scale cyber attack.  Roivas asserts the importance of cyber defense and adds a digital government is not an end in itself. “In fact the Citizens are Big Brother over the Government.”  

Estonia is a member of the Digital Five, a select group of five countries including Israel, New Zealand, South Korea, and the United Kingdom; places with high use of  E government.

Illegally annexed by the Soviets in 1940, and ruled as a  “Socialist Republic” until 1991, Estonia still hosts a large Russian ethnic population; in the capital Tallinn the population is 38 percent Russian. 

Prime Minister Roivas concedes that while there has been “a worrying pattern” of Russia violating sovereignty of Georgia and Ukraine, Estonia’s NATO membership is a valuable safeguard to its sovereignty.  Equally Estonia is one of a handful of NATO states which spends 2 percent of GDP on defense the others being the USA, UK, Greece and Poland.  

Yet this little Baltic nation, about the size of New Hampshire and Vermont combined, has only 1.3 million people and is geographically on westernmost shoulder of Russia. Its big neighbor gives it the most concern and that is exactly why Estonia is a member of NATO and the EU.   

“National security is fundamental for any state,” and indirectly referencing Russia he added, “We should not forget countries in Europe changing state borders by force.” 

Roivas asserted warily, “Crises do not come and go, but come and stay.”  

Comment du Jour

Happy Europe Day!


New York's iconic Empire State building is lit up in the Blue and Gold
colors of the 28 member European Union to celebrate Europe Day on 10 May.

Comment du Jour

Governments Paranoid Over Free Media: Global Survey Reports

Governments throughout the world seem increasingly nervous if not paranoid over a free press and media, according to a searingly poignant survey by Reporters Without Borders (RSF).  The annual survey of the global media in 180 countries, the French-based monitor report underscores a gradual deterioration in freedoms and the rights of journalists to freely pursue and present reports. 

“It is unfortunately clear that many of the world’s leaders are developing a form of paranoia about legitimate journalism,” states Christophe Deloire, RSF’s Secretary General.  He adds, “The climate of fear results in a growing aversion to debate and pluralism, a clampdown on the media by ever more authoritarian and oppressive governments.”

All this points to what the watchdog group calls a “deep and disturbing decline in media freedoms.” 

First let’s analyze the survey, compiled by a rigorous methodology and analysis.  Of the top ten countries with the freest media include Finland, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark and New Zealand.  Not surprising.  The second five include Costa Rica, Switzerland,  Sweden, Ireland and Jamaica.   

Again impressive, but where’s the USA?   

Let’s look at the next ten countries.  There’s Austria, Slovakia, Belgium, Germany and Canada among them. There’s good news here: Estonia has the best ratings of any country in the post-Soviet Union while Slovakia has the best numbers of any country in former Eastern Europe. 

Yet again, where’s the USA?

The United States is ranked 41st  in press freedoms, that’s behind South Africa and Slovenia and just ahead of Burkina Faso and Botswana.  Despite America’s long cherished First Amendment which constitutionally provides for extensive media rights, there’s been a steady erosion of  journalistic freedoms in recent years.  In 2015 the USA ranked 49th.  But why?

The reasons are manifest in the Administration’s stringent use of security legislation.  According to the report, “The main cause for concern for RSF continues to be the current administration’s obsessive control of information, which manifests itself through the war on whistleblowers and journalists’ sources, as well as the lack of government transparency, which reporters have continually criticized. ”  

The RSF survey adds poignantly,  “The Obama administration has prosecuted more whistleblowers under the Espionage Act than all previous administrations combined.”

But it’ s not just the U.S. slipping in press freedoms.  Japan which has proudly sustained a free press in the postwar era, has now slipped eleven places to #72,  just behind South Korea.  Japan’s press restrictions concerning “state secrets” remain onerous.  

The Republic of China on Taiwan still maintains the highest free press standing  in East Asia: Taiwan comes in at #51, compared with Hong Kong at #69 and the Philippines at #138.  Mainland China’s media freedoms are near the end of the list scoring #176, just behind Vietnam and one step ahead of Syria.   

As is now almost a tradition, North Korea and Eritrea are at the bottom of the list rounding out the most repressive states for media freedoms.  

Surprised?

Comment du Jour

Sideways Swimming Pool?

                                                             Van Goghs Ear 

Amid the Art Deco architectural splendor of New York's Rockefeller Center complex, there's a new attraction politely described as public art.  Van Gogh's Ear is a 30 foot sideways swimming
pool, stood upright, on the plaza which is best known for the iconic seasonal Christmas Tree.

 Elmgreen and Dragset, a Danish/Norwegian artistic duo,  says their design is meant to visually attract attention and provoke thought.   

 It certainly does.  

Comment du Jour

NY Antiquarian Book Fair

April 7-10

The New York Antiquarian Book Fair is back in New York!!  The 56th Annual
Fair, located at the venerable red brick Park Avenue Armory,  has become a true Rite of Spring for those looking for rare and important books as well as
a fascinating array of literature, autographs, Americana and amazing illuminated manuscripts.

The Fair, is noted for its First Editions of rare volumes from the 16th century right until the mid-20th century Ian Fleming James Bond series.


Over 200 American and largely European dealers are again participating in the Fair with strong contingents from Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland.  New participants from Australia included the Asia Bookroom.

Rare books abound as do interesting letters and pieces of history.

The Raab Collection of Ardmore, Pennsylvania offered a fascinating piece of American history.

Here's a letter written by Thomas Jefferson, reacting to the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the resumption of Transatlantic Commerce.  Writing from Monticello, in 1815, Jefferson states, "With the return of peace, I return to my old correspondents.  I am out of wine, and it will be some months before I can receive for what I have written for to Europe.  I must request you to fill up the chasm by sending me a quarter cask of either dry Sherry or Dry Lisbon (Port) which you have to be recommended.  Let it be in a double cask and sent to Richmond."  

The legendary Travels of Mendes Pinto: Adventurer, Missionary, Pirate from the Red Sea to the South China Sea & Japan was being offered by New York dealer Martayan Lan.  Printed in Lisbon in 1614, the fabled Peregrinations, and a classic in Portuguese literature, became as well known as  Dom Quixote, and rivaled Marco Polo's Travels for its extraordinary descriptions of the Far East.

London rare book dealer Leo Cadogan brought some gems including the above account dealing with military matters relating to the War of Spanish Succession. The frontispiece engraving is  of King Philip V.  The book dating from 1707 opens a window into a forgotten but crucial era in European history.

Business seemed brisk and dealers were busy.
The Park Avenue Armory presents a perfect and established venue for the Fair and participants hope it shall continue to do so into the future.