Comment du Jour

                               Global Economy Facing Dangerous Shocks

After years of consistent economic expansion and growth throughout much of the 

world, the global economy is facing tectonic shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic.  

For developed states such as the United States and Western Europe, the “unseen enemy” of the virus has shattered economic forecasts and international commerce; for developing countries, the after-shocks of this crisis can be even more lasting as they will fall victim to steep drops in  demand and investment.  

The global economy is projected to contract sharply by -3.2 percent this year, according to the 

UN’s World Economic Situation mid-2020 report.  This sharp contraction, the greatest since the 

Great Depression of the 1930’s, follows a lackluster original forecast of 2.1 percent growth at the beginning of this year.   

The Report estimates that GDP growth in the developed economies will plunge to -5.0 percent in 2020.  A modest 3.4 percent recovery is expected next year.  Significantly, “world trade is      forecast to contract by nearly 15 percent in 2020 amid sharply reduced global demand and      disruptions in supply chains.” 

These are stunning statistics and reflect the cruel reality that nearly 90 percent of the world remains on pandemic lockdown causing catastrophic job cuts and threatening a quick economic revival.  

There’s an ongoing debate between saving lives and saving jobs. 

Dr. Elliott Harris, Assistant Secretary General for Economic Development warned that, “The pace and strength of the recovery from the crisis not only hinges on the effect of public health measures in slowing the spread of the virus, but also on the ability of countries to protect jobs and incomes.”  

Moreover UN officials warn the increase in global economic inequality can lead to instability.  

Due to the Wuhan virus pandemic, the United States has gone from having robust economic growth and historically low unemployment to negative growth and surging unemployment all in a space of a few months!  U.S. growth of 2.9 percent last year is except to fall to -4.8 percent this year but rebound to 3.9.  in 2021.  

The European Union's growth of 1.8 percent last year will slip to -5.5 this year and only inch up to 2.8 percent in 2021.   Equally Japan whose growth in 2019 was a anemic 0.7 percent will fall to  -4.2 percent but will then jump to 3.2 percent next year.    

Looking at East and South Asia, which grew 5 percent on average last year, there’s still a   prediction of some growth this year albeit 0.8 percent.  China’s growth of 6.1 percent last year is expected to maintain 1.7 percent this year and then theoretically surge to 7.6 percent in 2021.  

India who recorded an impressive 4.1 percent in 2019 is still expected to reach 1.2 percent this year and then climb to 5.5 percent in 2021.  

Just a few years ago the so-called BRICS, the informal alliance of fast-growing developing world economies, were the talk of the town.  Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa were lauded as a new global engine.  Now with the exception of China  (if you can believe the numbers) and India, these economies have cooled considerably.  

Brazil has gone from 1.1 percent growth last year to this year expected -5.2 percent.  Russia goes from an anemic 1.3 percent last year to a -4.3 percent this year.  The once vibrant Southern African region has gone from flat growth in 2019 to -3.5 percent this year.  

A particularly troubling trend concerns Latin American and African growth rates.  The UN report states that, “The pandemic will likely cause an estimated 34 million people to fall below the   extreme poverty line in 2020, with 56% of this increase occurring in African countries.”   This underscores a troubling trend where African growth rates reached 3 percent last year to fall -1.6 percent this year but rebound to 3.4 percent next year. 

South America underscores some serious shortfalls; growth last year was -0.5 percent, this year shall drop to -5.5 percent and only rise 2.7 percent next year.  Such numbers reflect economic free fall in Venezuela, and serious economic contractions in Argentina, Brazil and Chile. 

Without a strong U.S.,  European Union, and Japanese economic recovery along with vibrant free trade,  global growth will stagnate and poverty will increase.  Trade, investments and free markets will then begin to turn the tide lifting all boats.    

Comment du Jour

WHO is Covering for China?? 

Did World Health Organization (WHO) Cover-up China's Role in Corona Crisis? 

t’s easy to point fingers during a deadly pandemic, and let’s do so. WHO first sounded the alarm? WHO downplayed real medical risks? WHO calmed or stoked irrational fears? 

WHO  in this case, is the global medical monitor providing us with real time warnings and assessments.

Governments and health officials counted on the Geneva-based World Health Organization (WHO) to be the proverbial canary in the coal mine warning us about the evolving dangers of the Coronavirus.  Instead the health monitor downplayed the initial phases of the deadly Coronavirus aka COVID-19 in Wuhan, China giving outside observers the impression that the outbreak was a small and containable blip on the radar in far off interior China.  

The timing was worthy of a spy thriller; the crisis starts slowly in China’s Yangtze River valley in late November; the Chinese government in its characteristic covert and obfuscatory way withholds early data warnings allowing the virus to take root before the world really notices. Then by December early warnings are noted but the world was in holiday mode. 

WHO’s in charge?  Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus from Ethiopia became Beijing’s select candidate to run WHO.  He was elected Director General in 2017, for a five year term, succeeding  China’s Dr.Margaret Chan.  

Timelines show conclusively that while WHO knew of the impending epidemic, it proceeded too cautiously to kick in emergency measures.  Why?  Dr. Tedros said on Jan 23rd,  “I am not       declaring a public health emergency of international concern today… this is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency.  It may yet become one.”  He added, “At this time, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.”

Dr. Tedros stated dutifully, “Once again, I would like to thank the Government of the People’s Republic of China for its cooperation and transparency.  The government has been successful in isolating and sequencing the virus very quickly.”  Pure farce!

Dr. Tedros was far too late in declaring a pandemic only on March 11th.

Though the COVID-19 virus emanated from Mainland China, neighboring areas such as South

Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong acted with alacrity and professionalism to stem the spread.  

WHO pays?  The USA remains WHO’s largest financial supporter.  In 2019 the U.S.               contributions to WHO exceeded $400 million both in assessments (22%) and voluntary           donations; almost double China, the second largest contributor at $44 million.  Importantly,   China has become WHO’s second largest donor assessed at 12% of the budget or $28 million.   Japan pays $20 million or 8.5% of the budget. Ethiopia, Dr.  Tedros home country, pays $48,000.   

President Donald Trump has warned WHO that its China-centric actions will prompt a major review of American funding.  

WHO profits?  We cite the old Roman proverb, WHO profits?  China now controls five of the UN’s fifteen specialized agencies such as WHO.  Through its legitimacy as a supposedly neutral health monitor, WHO was able to effectively spread Beijing’s talking points to a wider audience first in the scientific community, then governments, and later via the media a frightened global populace.  WHO served as China’s transmission belt for the Coronavirus narrative.

WHO suffers?   Among the first was Dr. Li Wenliang in Wuhan who discovered and warned  about the dangers of Coronavirus.  He contracted the virus, was silenced by the police and later died.  Dr. Li has since become an icon for dissidents and ordinary people for courageously  speaking out.  Now more than a million people have been infected;  24,000 Americans, 20,000 Italians, 15,000 French, 11,000 British, and 3,200 Chinese (if you believe the number)  have died from this terrible virus. This is not the end either. 

WHO’s responsible? The primary guilt lies with Beijing’s regime who spread a deadly miasma of disinformation about the virus through both its State run media as well as the gullible WHO in Geneva.  The narrative that Coronavirus came from eating bats offered a colorful and folkloric story to obscure the Chinese Communist Party’s hidden hand of both screwup and coverup     inside China most likely connected to two research labs; the Institute of Virology and the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control. 

The United States and other key countries such as Britain, Canada,  France, Germany and Japan have provided WHO’s funding for emergency preparedness, response capability and expertise.  There’s no doubt that WHO has positively contributed to disease eradication and control such as the fights against Polio and Malaria. Thus the issue clearly becomes the WHO’s leadership, not its important and vital global health mission.