Comment du Jour

Looking Ahead at the World in 2014

It’s that time to consult the snow globe and try to peer ahead at some of the key stories, crises and opportunities which await the world as we prepare for a new year.  Indeed 2013 has been marred by new levels of violence, humanitarian disasters, and a perceptible lack of leadership from the USA on the foreign policy front.   

So what are we looking at in the year ahead?

Sadly the Middle East remains in the forefront of senseless and often religious violence.  Syria’s civil war continues unabated;  as a nexus of competing proxy forces, Islamic fundamentalist fighters, and the widening humanitarian disaster befalling the civilian population.  Though the Obama Administration nearly blundered into an active military role in this fight, the seething hatreds and sectarian divides will not be solved by Washington but by the Syrians themselves.  

The upcoming UN sponsored Syria peace conference in Switzerland allows for this.

In his Christmas Message from the Vatican, Pope Francis pleaded for all sides in this conflict to allow humanitarian access to civilians.  He stated “Too many lives have been shattered in recent times by conflict in Syria, fueling hatred and vengeance. “  He also called for peace in Iraq, where 37 Christians were killed in Christmas day violence. 

Indeed in our world of hypersensitivity and feigned caring, few people seem to notice the plight of ancient Christian communities in Iraq, Syria or Egypt. 

In Africa the news is sadly mixed.  The French helped topple an Islamic fundamentalist insurgency in Mali which had threatened to turn the country into a “Taliban style” fiefdom. 

In Western Europe, the undertow of unemployment and stagnant economic growth continue.

Static socialist policies don't help the situation.

Germany has a new government with Chancellor Angela Merkel heading into a third term.  Though Merkel's CDU/CSU parties won a resounding victory in the September elections, they fell a few seats short to form a conservative government in the Bundestag. Thus after three months of horse-trading Merkel's CDU formed a Grand Coalition with the Social Democrats, the SPD.  High flyers in the new Cabinet include Germany's first female Defense Minister from the CDU, as well as a return of the SPD's Frank-Walter Steinmeier as Foreign Minister.

 Greece holds the six month Presidency of the European Union and the Baltic state of Latvia has adopted the Euro as its currency. 

Elections to the European Parliament will be held in late May. 

Elsewhere in Europe,   Ukraine’s political crisis will continue as the country looks to Western Europe or to Russia.   Naturally Moscow has played hardball with this former Soviet republic but at the same time the opportunity of closer ties with the democratic European Union may eventually prove stronger. 

With the approach of the Sochi Winter Olympics, the host country Russia is on best behavior, releasing imprisoned dissidents and stressing soft power.  

Meantime Brazil will host the Football World Cup in June; European teams like Germany, Portugal and Spain are serious contenders to win the World Cup.   

 Samuel Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations,” remains  seminal reading.  The thesis is basically that clashes between countries will not occur along purely ideological divides as in the Cold War, but along religious and civilizational fault lines as we currently witness throughout Africa, South Asia, and even Europe if we view the Balkan conflicts or contemporary Ukraine.

In many of these cases a vacuum of clear U.S. policy or its retreat from the world, have allowed for lost opportunities or lessened influence.