Comment du Jour

In wake of Barcelona...

France Calmer, Safer Year After Terrorist Attacks

A year ago France was on edge.  Islamic Jihadi terrorists had killed 86 people with a truck ramming incident at a Bastille Day celebration in Nice.  Shortly thereafter a elderly priest was murdered as he said Mass.  These attacks following a spate of earlier shootings in Paris killing over 130 put the country on edge.  The tension and expectation impending attacks        enveloped France like the hot and humid summer air.  

A year later France feels calmer.  Camouflage-clad Soldiers still patrol in the airport and train terminals and on some boulevards but there far less tension and nervousness.  Both the Parisians and throngs of foreign tourists feel far more secure in Cafes and the crowded streets.

The good news is that the French security services seem to have broken or at least neutralized many of the terrorist networks which have often been linked to the radicalized foreign fighters in  Syria.  Most of the “home grown” terrorists were French born and coming from rundown      suburban towns les banlieue, where a toxic mix of petty crime, drugs, and radicalized mosques have served as a breeding ground for radicals.  This is not an entirely new phenomenon but has been supercharged by the “cause” and the war in Syria.  

Intelligence estimates that 25,000 foreign fighters are in Syria.  West European militants be they from France, Belgium or Germany have become both radicalized and more importantly have learned deadly military skills while fighting in the Middle East.

Equally the political climate has changed.  The drawn out Presidential campaign contest ended in 

May with the improbable victory of Emmanuel Macron, a young, dynamic and totally different figure from the staid French political class.  Macron represents far more of a populist movement than a traditionally rigid right/left political ideology.  Still just months after his landslide election victory, Macron’s poll popularity has fallen below 40 percent. 

Paris has been selected as the site of the 2024 Summer Olympics. Significantly the Olympics present an extraordinary plus for Paris and naturally the image of France.  Interestingly the Games will coincide with the centenary 1924 Paris Olympics.  Yet the majority of Parisians are not in favor of the sporting spectacular; they fear cost overruns, widening traffic gridlock, and making themselves a terrorist target.  

President Macron will be phasing out the emergency imposed after the bloody 2015 attacks.   Operation Sentinelle, the domestic deployment of the  Army inside the country for security     details, represents the military's largest operation anywhere. 

Nonetheless the terrorist threat has hardly passed.  As Islamic State is being defeated in Iraq and Syria by a U.S. backed military coalition, the shattered remnants of the foreign fighters may drift back into Western Europe posing a clear and present danger to states from where they came.

Vigilance remains prudent.